Pan‐Arctic distribution modeling reveals climate‐change‐driven poleward shifts of major gelatinous zooplankton species

Abstract

Anthropogenic activities, including climate change, are hypothesized to cause increases in gelatinous zooplankton population sizes and blooms. In the most rapidly changing ecosystem, the Arctic Ocean, this hypothesis has not yet been verified, and gelatinous zooplankton is commonly excluded from large‐scale modeling studies. Our modeling study is based on an extensive biogeographic dataset, aggregating from four open‐source databases (Ocean Biodiversity Information System, Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Jellyfish Database Initiative, and PANGAEA). It includes data on eight of the most reported gelatinous zooplankton taxa of the pan‐Arctic region (Aglantha digitale, Sminthea arctica, Periphylla periphylla, Cyanea capillata, Oikopleura vanhoeffeni, Fritillaria borealis, Mertensia ovum, and Beroe spp.). By coupling three‐dimensional species distribution models with oceanographic components from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2), run for historical (1950–2014) and future (2050–2099) periods under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP370 scenario forcing, we identified species with expanding or contracting habitat ranges in response to climate change. Our projections indicated a general tendency for gelatinous zooplankton distributions to shift, with varying degrees of suitable habitat expansion (largest for the scyphozoan C. capillata ~ +180%) or contraction (largest for the hydrozoan Sm. arctica ~ −15%). Seven of the eight species modeled, which—similar to the majority of gelatinous taxa occurring in the Arctic Ocean—predominantly represented arcto‐boreal and boreal taxa, are projected to shift to northern latitudes. Hence, profound impacts on the Arctic marine environment and associated ecosystem services can be expected.