Palm Oil to Biodiesel: Determination Factors on Production and Export Volume

Abstract

Abstract-In this study, determination factors that affect the production volume of oil palm fruits and the export volume of biodiesel are identified using the multiple regression technique, and results using model transformation method are compared. For this purpose, two models are developed, namely, Model I is for the production volume of oil palm fruits, while Model II is for the export volume of biodiesel. Data variables are transformed using the ladder of power transformation method. There are five independent variables in Model I and four independent variables in Model II. The four phases in multiple regression model-building are carried out on both Model I and II respectively. Model I will use the model transformation method to change the data from non-normality to normality. The best model obtained for Model I by model transformation is M72.2.5. The main factor is the total workers employed during last pay period, and the interaction factors up to order two are: harvested area interact with yield per hectare, harvested area interact with local delivery average price, harvested area interact with total workers employed during last pay period, yield per hectare interact with local delivery average price, harvested area interact with local delivery average price interact with total workers employed during last pay period and yield per hectare interact with local delivery average price interact with total workers employed during last pay period. The MAPE value for best model on model transformation is 2.62%. Therefore, the best model using the model transformation method is said to be acceptable to forecast for the production volume. The best model M72.2.5 is then used to obtain Model II which is given by M2.0.0. The main factor is the export volume of biodiesel.