Pacific island tropical cyclones are more frequent and globally relevant, yet less studied

Abstract

Typhoon Haiyan devastated the Philippines in 2013 and illuminates the fact that the majority of tropical cyclone (TC) research has focused on the Atlantic Basin, continental socio-ecological systems, affluent regions where the resilience attributes of the human element differ from that of the of majority the world's population, and organized countries where research and relief capacities are among the best worldwide. I contend that this collective international bias minimizes the usefulness of global TC research in light of global change forecasts, which predict increased frequency of intense TCs. Moreover, paleoecological studies indicate ecosystem resilience following a TC is greatly increased within habitats that experienced a prior history of frequent TCs. When these retrospective and future visions are connected, science-based analysis of the influences of climate change on TC disturbance argues for an increase in contemporary research on TCs of developing island nations in the western Pacific where TCs are already relatively frequent. Otherwise the current research trajectory may further widen the disconnect between best available science and future management decisions.

Extreme Wind Events Influence Seed Rain and Seedling Dynamics of Guam’s Serianthes nelsonii Merr

“…Climate change is not expected to increase tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific Basin but is expected to increase the intensity of these tropical cyclones (Marler, 2014). A single tropical cyclone may alter the size and spatial traits of the seedling population and increase subsequent plant growth rates to influence recruitment dynamics (Lomascolo & Aide, 2001;Walker, Lodge, Guzma´n-Grajales, & Fetcher, 2003).…”

Threatened Native Trees in Guam: Short-term Seed Storage and Shade Conditions Influence Emergence and Growth of Seedlings

“…We suggest a shift to fund more direct research is needed to move beyond hearsay and anecdotes, and if ongoing funding efforts continue to focus on applied conservation this will vitiate future successes in collective conservation efforts (Marler and Lindstr€ om, 2014). Urgency is also underscored by ongoing destabilizing synergisms between climate change and island biology (Marler, 2014) and habitat loss and fragmentation due to enduring expansion of military operations (Marler and Moore, 2011).…”

Disruption of Leaf Nutrient Remobilization in Coastal Cycas Trees by Tropical Cyclone Damage

“…These interactive effects are poorly understood and not adequately studied for TCs. Moreover, research on the influence of TCs on island ecosystems in the western Pacific has not been adequate [14].…”

“…The impact of TCs on small islands may exert extreme pressures on the coastal communities [14]. For example, coastal flooding caused by TCs will likely worsen in the future [44].…”