Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Hydroclimatology of Western Canada—Review and Prospects

Whitfield, Paul H.; Moore, R. D.; Fleming, Sean W.; Zawadzki, A

doi:10.4296/cwrj3501001

Cited by 110 publications

(136 citation statements)

References 108 publications

(131 reference statements)

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“…Because of space limitations, the projection of EOF 2 of the observed North Pacific residual SSTs (the Victoria pattern) and the related North Pacific Gyre Oscillation is outside the scope of this paper (Bond et al, 2003;Di Lorenzo et al, 2008;Overland et al, 2008;Whitfield et al, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century

Lapp

Jacques

Barrow

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The climatology and hydrology of western North America display strong periodic cycles which are correlated with the low-frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO's signature is seen throughout the entire North Pacific region, with related significant associations to hydrology and ecology in western North America and northeastern Asia. Therefore, the status of the PDO in a warmer world caused by anthropogenic climate change is of great interest. We developed early 21st-century projections of the PDO, using data from archived runs of the most recent high-resolution global climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). Because of the geographical adjacency and hypothesized interactions between the PDO and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and between the PDO and the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), we also developed concurrent projections of ENSO and the NAO and examined their relationships with the projected PDO. For the B1, A1B and A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) emission scenarios, the PDO projections for 2000-2050 showed a weak multi-model mean shift towards more occurrences of the negative phase PDO, which becomes statistically significant for the time period 2000-2099. However, not all the models showed a consistent shift to negative PDO conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Jacques et al, 2010;Whitfield et al, 2010;Wise, 2010). Winter precipitation in this region is higher (lower) and winter temperatures are cooler (warmer) when the PDO is in a negative (positive) phase, and vice versa in southwestern North America (Mantua et al, 1997;Mantua and Hare, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century

Lapp

Jacques

Barrow

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The cool, negative-phase produces the reverse effect (Moore et al, n.d.). Accordingly, PDO has been referred to as "ENSO-like" (Moore et al, n.d.;Whitfield et al, 2010;Mantua et al, 1997) and each phase creates a broadly similar precipitation response as ENSO Kenyon and Hegerl, 2010;Gershunov and Barnett, 1998).…”

Section: Enso Is Characterized By Fluctuating Sea Surface Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the most established modulations is that of PDO on ENSO, which results in El Niño (La Niña) being strong and stable when PDO is positive (negative) (Kiffney et al, 2002;Whitfield et al, 2010;Gershunov and Barnett, 1998). During these occasions, PDO and ENSO are said to be in-phase, or constructive (Kiffney et al, 2002).…”

Section: Enso Is Characterized By Fluctuating Sea Surface Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, the lack of high-quality, long-term climate data is an obstacle for analyzing large-scale climate variability and extreme precipitation events that occur less frequently (Easterling et al, 2000;Whitfield et al, 2010). For instance, many studies span only one phase of PDO and therefore do not consider interdecadal fluctuations .…”

Section: Enso Is Characterized By Fluctuating Sea Surface Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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Response of a fractured bedrock aquifer to recharge from heavy rainfall events

Rathay

Allen

Kirste

2018

Journal of Hydrology

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The response of a fractured bedrock aquifer in a temperate region (Gulf Islands, British Columbia) to heavy rainfall events is characterized. Of the 14 provincial observation wells with hourly groundwater level data, wells with shallow water levels showed pronounced responses to heavy rain events, a lag less than 12 hours, and a strong correlation to all rain events. Rises in groundwater level at Well 125 appear to be better related to all rain events than exclusively heavy rain during summer, and decrease as the rainfall intensity increases. Thermal infrared images and δ 18 O and δ 2 H composition for precipitation and seepage indicate an increase in seepage in the late fall and winter.Solution of the Green-Ampt equation for rainfall events of varying magnitude suggest that an increase in winter rainfall intensity leads to more surface ponding and overland flow. The projected occurrence of more heavy rain events in the future may result in lower net recharge.

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Statistical emulation of streamflow projections from a distributed hydrological model: Application to CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate projections for British Columbia, Canada

Schnorbus

Cannon

2014

Water Resources Research

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A recent hydrological impacts study in British Columbia, Canada, used an ensemble of 23 climate change simulations to assess potential future changes in streamflow. These Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) simulations were statistically downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model over several watersheds. Due to computational restrictions, the 23 member VIC ensemble is a subset of the full 136 member CMIP3 archive. Extending the VIC ensemble to cover the full range of uncertainty represented by CMIP3, and incorporating the latest generation CMIP5 ensembles, poses a considerable computing challenge. Thus, we extend the VIC ensemble using a computationally efficient statistical emulation model, which approximates the combined output of the two-step process of statistical downscaling and hydrologic modeling, trained with the 23 member VIC ensemble. Regularized multiple linear regression links projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation with projected changes in monthly streamflow over the Fraser and Peace River watersheds. Following validation, the statistical emulator is forced with the full suite of CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate change projections. The 23 member VIC ensemble has a smaller spread than the full ensemble; however, both ensembles provide the same consensus estimate of monthly streamflow change. Qualitatively, CMIP5 shows a similar streamflow response as CMIP3 for snow-dominated hydrologic regimes. However, by end-century, the CMIP5 worst-case RCP8.5 has a larger impact than CMIP3 A2. This work also underscores the advantage of using emulation to rapidly identify those future extreme projections that may merit further study using more computationally demanding process-based methods.

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Hydroclimatology of Western Canada—Review and Prospects

Cited by 110 publications

References 108 publications

GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century

GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century

Response of a fractured bedrock aquifer to recharge from heavy rainfall events

Statistical emulation of streamflow projections from a distributed hydrological model: Application to CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate projections for British Columbia, Canada

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