P02-67 - Adolescent Delinquency as Precursor to Adult Violent Offending - a Prospective Study of a Representative Sample of Swiss Men

Abstract

Studies on adult sex and violent offenders have found high rates of adolescent delinquency, while early delinquency has been shown to be significantly associated with adult offending. The examined sample represents a sub-sample of an age cohort of a longitudinal prospective study (N=6315) including all men who at the age of 19 had an entry in the criminal records (N=123). During the observation period of 34 years, 68.3% of the sample had been reconvicted as adults, 23.6% for violent or sex offenses. Of the adolescent delinquents who went on to adult violent offending the odds for adult sex or violent offending were 2.8 times elevated for those who had committed a violent offense in adolescence and 2.5 times elevated per type of offense committed in adolescence. Additionally, each offense committed before the age of 19 lead to a 5% increase in risk for violent or sex offending as an adult. The characteristics of criminal history showed the highest discriminative values (AUC: 0.61-0.65). The most important finding of this study was that characteristics of adolescent delinquency such as versatility, violence and frequency are better predictors of adult violent offending than socioeconomic or psychiatric ones.

The Relation of Juvenile Delinquency and Adult Incarceration: Does Parental Incarceration Really Matter?

“…However, children of incarcerated parents appear to be at heightened risk for multiple problems beyond the risk associated with similar disadvantaged populations (Dallaire & Wilson, 2010;Laubacher, 2010;Murray et al, 2012;Poehlmann, Park, Bouffiou, Abrahams, Shlafer, & Hahn, 2008). Wildeman (2010) addressed this issue by focusing on intra-family changes to examine the effects of incarceration on childhood aggression.…”

“…Child and adolescent crimes. One of the greatest risks for children of incarcerated parents is committing illegal and delinquent acts as adolescents (Dallaire & Wilson, 2010;Laubacher, 2010;Murray et al, 2012;Poehlmann et al, 2008). In a nationally representative longitudinal study of adolescents in the United States, Roettger and Swisher (2011) compared rates of serious and violent delinquent behavior between 784 males whose fathers had been incarcerated and 5,344 males whose fathers had not been incarcerated.…”

“…In an Australian study, 91% of the juvenile offenders who were released under the Australian equivalent of probation went on to be involved in the adult corrections system, with at least half of those offenders serving some form of jail or prison sentence (Lynch, Buckman, & Krenske, 2003). In another study using a sample of Swiss men, characteristics of juvenile criminal history (e.g., versatility, violence, frequency) were better predictors of adult violent offending than socio-economic or psychiatric risk factors (Laubacher, 2010). Tracy and Kempf-Leonard (1996) followed the criminal histories (up to age 26) for a 1958 birth cohort of 27,160 boys and girls from Philadelphia.…”

“…Current literature reveals that while several studies have investigated delinquency rates among youth, many have used either smaller data sets or have been performed in other countries (Laubacher, 2010;Murray et al, 2007;Murray & Farrington, 2005;Murray et al, 2012). Those longitudinal studies which have been performed in the U.S., using, for example, data from the Fragile Families and Child Well Being study, the National Youth Survey, or Add Health, have focused on individual traits, such as social class, genes, or delinquency subtypes (Guo, Roettger, & Shih, 2007;Nagin & Tremblay, 1999) Peeples & Loeber, 1994).…”