With lithium demand soaring for application in technology, it is vital to understand how states with lithium deposits can attract investment for extraction. Since the “lithium triangle” countries hold much of the world's lithium reserves, they serve as greatly contrasting case studies regarding lithium output. This research explains how policy differences in these three countries have resulted in differing output and industry development. Data are collected from investment reports, semi‐structured interviews, and surveys with insiders, finding two primary policy considerations. First, policy transparency and uniformity explain variation in investment and thus output. Unclear rules greatly deter investment, even when the resource is abundant. Then, property protections from state expropriation ensure these investments are secure and are more likely to attract investment and development. These findings have implications for emerging natural resource industries around the world and for those with geopolitical interests in securing access to critical resources.
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