Overview of the Global Electricity System in Oman Considering Energy Demand Model Forecast

Abstract

Lately, in modern smart power grids, energy demand for accurate forecast of electricity is gaining attention, with increased interest of research. This is due to the fact that a good energy demand forecast would lead to proper responses for electricity demand. In addition, proper energy demand forecast would ensure efficient planning of the electricity industry and is critical in the scheduling of the power grid capacity and management of the entire power network. As most power systems are been deregulated and with the rapid introduction and development of smartmetering technologies in Oman, new opportunities may arise considering the efficiency and reliability of the power system; like price-based demand response programs. These programs could either be a large scale for household, commercial or industrial users. However, excellent demand forecasting models are crucial for the deployment of these smart metering in the power grid based on good knowledge of the electricity market structure. Consequently, in this paper, an overview of the Oman regulatory regime, financial mechanism, price control, and distribution system security standard were presented. More so, the energy demand forecast in Oman was analysed, using the econometric model to forecasts its energy peak demand. The energy econometric analysis in this study describes the relationship between the growth of historical electricity consumption and macro-economic parameters (by region, and by tariff), considering a case study of Mazoon Electricity Distribution Company (MZEC), which is one of the major power distribution companies in Oman, for effective energy demand in the power grid.