Overlooked factors in predicting the transition to clean electricity

Abstract

The transition to clean energy will require significant increases in electricity sourced from renewable energy technologies. While wind and solar photovoltaic sources are generally expected to overtake hydropower to dominate the renewable electricity supply market, numerous other technologies vie for a share in this rapidly evolving arena. To date, predicting the emergence of different technologies has relied on large-scale energy models that employ simplified optimisations of economic and emissions reductions outcomes. This is problematic as many additional factors, largely underrepresented in current models, are likely to co-determine technological emergence storylines in the real world. Here, we present a summary of the best available information for five key factors as they apply to the seven most common renewable electricity technology categories. The findings suggest that wind and solar photovoltaic technologies remain the most likely to dominate the market going forward but could face considerable raw material supply risk issues. Other potentially more desirable alternatives exist but face their own geographic and environmental limitations. Ultimately, the study demonstrates the potential and importance of expanding the use of other relevant factors in the forecasting of energy transition pathways and in the field of energy modelling as a whole.

An energy future beyond climate neutrality: Comprehensive evaluations of transition pathways

“…Likewise, improvements in manufacturing or increased levels of automation may result in lower labour requirements, particularly for newer technologies like wind turbines, solar PV cells or biofuel production. Naturally, the extent of these improvements is difficult to predict, although learning curves or other approaches could be applied [47]. However, the architecture of ENBIOS means that it is simple to change input parameters of this kind for investigating multiple future scenarios.…”

Emerging consensus on net energy paves the way for improved integrated assessment modeling

“…3. the use of an ecological macroeconomic framework (as in HARMONEY 195,196 or TranSim 46 ) or ESM which deal with environmental and biophysical indicators 197 in a more comprehensive way, such as ENBIOS, 198 EnergyScope 199 or the one developed by Crownshaw; 200…”

“…3. the use of an ecological macroeconomic framework (as in HARMONEY 195,196 or TranSim 46 ) or ESM which deal with environmental and biophysical indicators 197 in a more comprehensive way, such as ENBIOS, 198 EnergyScope 199 or the one developed by Crownshaw;200 4. a common reporting template to include the energy consumption of the energy sector as well as useful energy in mitigation scenarios; 8,201,202 5. an explicit modelling of energy-economy feedbacks (including rebound effects) using net energy, at least with the aim of understanding how a net energy feedback would affect IAMs results to assess to what extent energy and economic feedbacks are internally (in)consistent across mitigation pathways; 202 6. the exploration of new mitigation pathways achieving high wellbeing levels with low resource use, 203 limiting the deployment of energy intensive carbon dioxide removal, [204][205][206][207][208] and equitable low-growth 209 and post-growth scenarios. [210][211][212][213][214][215][216][217] However, if these measures are to be properly implemented, they must be carried out simultaneously and without neoclassical economics theories, 218,219 which we see as incompatible.…”

Límites y potenciales tecnosostenibles de la energía: una mirada heterodoxa y sistémica

“…Como consecuencia, se sigue dando por presupuesto que las barreras a las tecnologías para evitar el cambio climático son solo económicas y políticas y no tecnológicas, https://doi.org/10.3989/arbor.2023.807004 ARBOR Vol. 199, 807, enero-marzo 2023, a690 | ISSN: 0210-1963 ecológicas o sociológicas (di Felice et al, 2021;Seibert and Rees, 2021;Martin et al, 2022). Además, también derivado de esas exageraciones se han minimizado sus efectos negativos (Giampietro, 2009;Searchinger et al, 2008;Crutzen et al, 2007;Boccard, 2009;Capellán-Pérez et al, 2017;Van de Ven et al, 2021).…”

“…(Alonso-Fradejas, 2021; Dunlap y Marin, 2022; Sánchez et al, 2021;Seibert y Rees, 2021). El cambio climático es condición suficiente para tratar de cambiar el sistema energético rápidamente, pero su aparente solución por vía de la rápida transición de la matriz energética no es garantía de que se resuelvan o disminuyan otros problemas socio-ambientales gravísimos también (Martin et al, 2022;Seibert y Rees 2021;Rehhein et al, 2020;Sonter et al, 2020).…”