Background
Adjuvant chemotherapy reduces recurrences of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). To determine which patients need adjuvant chemotherapy, we assessed factors associated with time to relapse (TTR).
Methods
In 230 resected stages I-II NSCLCs we correlated immunohistochemistry (IHC) scores for factors associated with cell growth rate, growth regulation, hypoxia, cell survival, and cell death with TTR.
Results
With a median follow-up of 82 (1-158) months for those alive and relapse-free at last follow-up, median time to recurrence was not reached. The 2- and 5-year probabilities of maintaining freedom from recurrence were 80.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]:(75.3%, 86.4%)) and 74.6% (95% CI:(68.6%, 81.2%)), respectively. TTR curves flattened at an apparent cure rate of 70%. In multicovariate Cox models, factors correlating with shorter TTR were membranous carbonic anhydrase IX (mCAIX) staining (any vs none, hazard ratio [HR]=2.083, p=0.023) and node stage (N1 vs N0, HR=2.591, p=0.002). mCAIX scores correlated positively with tumor size, grade, squamous histology, necrosis, mitoses, Ki67, p53, nuclear DNMT1 and cytoplasmic SHARP2, and correlated inversely with papillary histology, EGFR mutation (trend), CTR1, and cytoplasmic HIF-1α, VEGF, DNMT1, and ERCC1.
Conclusion
Nodal stage and mCAIX IHC were the strongest independent predictors of shorter TTR in resected NSCLCs. mCAIX correlated with tumor size, markers of tumor proliferation and necrosis, and tumor genetic characteristics, and paradoxically correlated inversely with the hypoxia markers HIF-1α and VEGF. Presence of mCAIX could help determine patients with high-risk of recurrence who might require adjuvant chemotherapy.