Over a century evidence of historical and recent dryness/wetness in sub‐humid areas: A Uganda, East African case

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Openy, Geoffrey; Sempewo, Jotham Ivan; Mucunguzi, Dominic Banaga

doi:10.1002/met.2028

Cited by 8 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 67 publications

(110 reference statements)

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“…The Theil-Sen median method [104] is a robust non-parametric trend calculation method, which is not sensitive to measurement error and outlier data [18], and it has been widely used in the trend analysis of hydrologic time series [10,11,31,41,105]. It allows the data to have missing values and does not require the data to conform to a specific probability distribution [13].…”

Section: Theil-sen Median Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dry-wet changes at different timescales shared similar characteristics with the evolution at the annual scale [92]. The SPEI evolution at the 12-month timescale is preferred because of its lower frequency and distinct signals [31]. In order to understand interannual dry-wet variation, this study used a 12-month time window to demonstrate the behavior of these events.…”

Section: Temporal Trends In Regional Dry-wet Variation Over Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Drought indices are commonly used metrics to quantify and compare different drought events [30]. As a starting point, such indices can offer the temporal evolution of wet and dry episodes [31]. In this regard, the time series of a drought index provides a framework for evaluating drought parameters of interest [32].…”

Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This method is a rank-based non-parametric statistical test whose null hypothesis assumes no significant transition in meteorological time series exists [70]. The alternative hypothesis is that there is a transition (i.e., change-point) in meteorological time series [31]. The significance of the step change was tested at the 95% confident level (p < 0.05) in this study.…”

Section: Pettitt Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Yang

Bing

2022

Atmosphere

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Drought is one of the major environmental stressors; drought is increasingly threatening the living environment of mankind. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) with a 12-month timescale was adopted to monitor dry–wet status over China from 1951 to 2021. The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt tests were used to assess the temporal trend and nonlinear behavior of annual drought variability. The analysis focuses on the spatio-temporal structure of the dry–wet transition and its general connections with climate change processes. In addition, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was applied to forecast the dry–wet behavior in the next year (2022) at 160 stations, and the hotspot areas for extreme dryness–wetness in China were identified in the near term. The results indicate that the dry–wet climate in China overall exhibits interannual variability characterized by intensified drought. The climate in the Northeast China (NEC), North China (NC), Northwest China (NWC), and Southwest China (SWC) has experienced a significant (p < 0.05) drying trend; however, the dry–wet changes in the East China (EC) and South Central China (SCC) are highly spatially heterogeneous. The significant uptrend in precipitation is mainly concentrated to the west of 100° E; the rising magnitude of precipitation is higher in Eastern China near 30° N, with a changing rate of 20–40 mm/decade. Each of the sub-regions has experienced significant (p < 0.01) warming over the past 71 years. Geographically, the increase in temperature north of 30° N is noticeably higher than that south of 30° N, with trend magnitudes of 0.30–0.50 °C/decade and 0.15–0.30 °C/decade, respectively. The response of the northern part of Eastern China to the warming trend had already emerged as early as the 1980s; these responses were earlier and more intense than those south of 40° N latitude (1990s). The drying trends are statistically significant in the northern and southern regions, bounded by 30° N, with trend magnitudes of −0.30–−0.20/decade and −0.20–−0.10/decade, respectively. The northern and southwestern parts of China have experienced a significant (p < 0.05) increase in the drought level since the 1950s, which is closely related to significant warming in recent decades. This study reveals the consistency of the spatial distribution of variations in precipitation and the SPEI along 30° N latitude. A weak uptrend in the SPEI, i.e., an increase in wetness, is shown in Eastern China surrounding 30° N, with a changing rate of 0.003–0.10/decade; this is closely associated with increasing precipitation in the area. Drought forecasting indicates that recent drying areas are located in NWC, the western part of NC, the western part of SWC, and the southern part of SCC. The climate is expected to show wetting characteristics in NEC, the southeastern part of NC, and the eastern part of EC. The dry–wet conditions spanning the area between 30–40° N and 100–110° E exhibit a greater spatial variability. The region between 20–50° N and 80–105° E will continue to face intense challenges from drought in the near future. This study provides compelling evidence for the temporal variability of meteorological drought in different sub-regions of China. The findings may contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal effect of historical climate change on dry–wet variation in the region since the 1950s, particularly in the context of global warming.

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Section: Theil-sen Median Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Temporal Trends In Regional Dry-wet Variation Over Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Pettitt Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Yang

Bing

2022

Atmosphere

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“…The usage of multiyear global gridded representations of weather known as reanalysis datasets has become widely accepted for hydrological and climatological modelling for catchments (Nkiaka et al 2017;Bahati et al 2021;Byakatonda et al 2021). National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (Tarana & Slobodan 2010), Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis (CFSR) (Daniel et al 2014), European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (Peng et al 2020) and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) (Gelaro et al 2017) are some of the widely used datasets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance evaluation of CFSR, MERRA-2 and TRMM3B42 data sets in simulating river discharge of data-scarce tropical catchments: a case study of Manafwa, Uganda

Theresa

Sempewo

Tumutungire

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Data scarcity has been a huge problem in modelling various catchments especially in the tropical region. Satellite data and different statistical methods are being used to improve the quality of conventional meteorological data. However, the potential of using these data needs to be further investigated. This paper evaluates the performance of three reanalysis datasets in hydrological modelling of the Manafwa Catchment, Uganda. Two reanalysis datasets were selected for studying both rainfall and temperature in Manafwa, whereas a satellite algorithm was selected for studying rainfall alone. The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), which has a horizontal resolution of 50 km and is suitable for investigating rainfall in small precipitation systems, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSR), which has a horizontal resolution of 38 km, were chosen as the reanalysis datasets. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM3B42) data were used as the satellite product in this study. The SWAT was set up to compare the performance of reanalysis datasets with that of the observed data. The model performance indicators indicated that, at daily time steps, all the three datasets produced the values of Nash–Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE≥0.4), coefficient of determination (R2≥0.4) and Percent Bias ±25%. Despite a general underperformance compared to MERRA-2, CFSR performed better than TRMM. On applying generated bias corrections for precipitation and temperature climate data, overall results showed that the bias-corrected data outperformed the original data. We conclude that, in the absence of gauged hydro-meteorological data, bias-corrected MERRA-2, CFSR and TRMM data could be used for simulating river discharge in data-scarce areas such as the tropical catchments in Uganda.

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Is this land for sale? The effects of drought on land ownership in Uganda

Murken,

Kraehnert,

Gornott

2024

Ecological Economics

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Over a century evidence of historical and recent dryness/wetness in sub‐humid areas: A Uganda, East African case

Cited by 8 publications

References 67 publications

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Performance evaluation of CFSR, MERRA-2 and TRMM3B42 data sets in simulating river discharge of data-scarce tropical catchments: a case study of Manafwa, Uganda

Is this land for sale? The effects of drought on land ownership in Uganda

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