Background: To characterize the course of Alzheimer's disease (AD) over a longer time interval, we aimed to construct a disease course model for the entire span of the disease using two separate cohorts ranging from preclinical AD to AD dementia.Methods: We used longitudinal data from 127 participants with preclinical AD and 309 participants with mild cognitive impairments (MCI) due to AD from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. In order to develop a model of progression from preclinical AD to AD dementia, we estimated Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale 13 (ADAS-cog 13) scores according to the follow-up time for each cohort, determined the time point at which the estimated scores of ADAS-cog 13 for the two cohorts first overlapped, and shifted the ADAS-cog 13 scores for the latter cohort at this time point to connect the two cohorts and to combine the data into a single unified progression course.Results: The estimated years for progression from the median ADAS-cog 13 score in the preclinical AD cohort (9.3 points) to the median ADAS-cog 13 score at the time of progression in the participants who progressed from preclinical AD to MCI due to AD (16.0 points) was 7.8 years. The estimated years for progression from preclinical AD to the median ADAS-cog 13 score at the time of progression in those who progressed from MCI to due AD to AD dementia (26.8 points) was 15.2 years. ADAS-cog 13 scores deteriorated most rapidly in female APOE ε4 carriers and most slowly in male APOE ε4 noncarriers ( p < 0.001).Conclusion: Our results suggest that disease progression modelling from preclinical AD to AD dementia may help clinicians to estimate where patients are in the disease course and provide information on variation in the disease course by sex and APOE ε4 status. Background Understanding the course of disease progression across the whole Alzheimer's disease (AD) continuum including preclinical AD, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD, and AD dementia will help in designing clinical trials to test preventative interventions. Some studies have investigated the progression in preclinical AD [1], MCI due to AD [2] and AD dementia [3] separately. However, their Follow up month, median (IQR) 48 (24-72) 48 (36-60) ADAS-cog 13 median (IQR) 9.3 (6.7-12.0)* 17 (12.0-21.0)* Conversion to MCI due to AD, no (%) 37 (29.1) AD dementia, no (%) 13 (10.2) 134 (43.4) Age, education, ADAS-cog 13 and month of follow-up are expressed as median (IQR). Categorical variables are expressed as no (%). Statistical analyses are performed with Chi-squared tests for APOEε4 carriers and sex. Mann Whitney test for age, education and ADAS-cog 13. *p < 0.05 between preclinical AD vs. MCI due to AD Abbreviations: AD = Alzheimer's Disease; ADAS-cog = Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale; APOE = Apolipoprotein E; IQR = interquartile range; MCI = mild cognitive impairment Disease progression modelling from preclinical AD to AD dementiaThe median ADAS-cog 13 score was 16.0 points at the time of progressio...