Outside the Wire: US Military Deployments and Public Opinion in Host States

Abstract

How do citizens within countries hosting U.S. military personnel view that presence? Using new cross-national survey data from 14 countries, we examine how different forms of exposure to a U.S. military presence in a country affect attitudes towards the U.S. military, government, and people. We find that contact with U.S. military personnel or the receipt of economic benefits from the U.S. presence correlates with stronger support for the U.S. presence, people, and government. This study has profound implications for the role that U.S. installations play in affecting the social fabric of host nations, and policy implications for the conduct of U.S. military activities outside the United States.

Exporting Influence: U.S. Military Training as Soft Power

“…For example, recent work by Ghosn, Braithwaite, and Chu (2019) finds that local populations in Lebanon feel more positively toward refugees if they have had direct contact with them. Allen et al (2020) find that among host country populations, individuals who have interacted directly or indirectly with deployed members of the U.S. military feel more positively toward not only the U.S. military, but Americans in general.…”

“…This concept is emphasized by conversations with military and civilian staff involved in foreign military training. As expressed by an American military officer stationed in South America, one major advantage for the U.S. of training foreign officers is that when they return to their home countries they are more likely to express pro-U.S. views and are part of a network of U.S. military training alumni that can be called upon when the United States requires their cooperation (Allen et al 2020;Embassy Staff #4 2018). 4 Many of the professional military schools have institutionalized ways of keeping in touch with alumni, such as alumni websites or class reunions, thus maintaining the students' identity.…”

“…An interview with a naval officer stationed in South America (conducted for a different project) confirmed this view, as the interviewee noted that the Navy is unique because all sailors, regardless of their country of origin, know what another sailor has been through. The subject stated that "the sea is the sea" for everyone, which allows sailors from different countries to "talk sailor talk" to each other (Allen et al 2020;Embassy Staff #4 2018).…”

“…Despite the military itself being a traditional hard power tool, foreign military training programs are a way in which foreign servicemembers can be socialized to hold more favorable views of the U.S. This follows from a contact theory-based argument, which states that foreign military students are able to interact directly with American instructors and fellow students during military training and education programs (Allport 1954;Allen et al 2020). As the foreign students share common experiences with their American counterparts, develop personal relationships, and are immersed in American culture, they feel more affinity toward the United States (Pettigrew 1998).…”

“…Existing large-n quantitative work has studied the various effects of U.S. military training on U.S. military relations in the host state, but not its effect on U.S. influence abroad (Ruby and Gibler 2010;Atkinson 2010;Savage and Caverley 2017). There is also a small but growing literature on "military soft power" which shows that positive interactions between the U.S. military and foreign nationals can create more positive perceptions of the U.S. abroad Allen et al 2020). Yet we still do not know if these positive perceptions created by military soft power actually translate to policies that are more favorable toward the United States.…”