Outlier Events of Solar Forecasts for Regional Power Grid in Japan Using JMA Mesoscale Model

Abstract

To realize the safety control of electric power systems under high penetration of photovoltaic power systems, accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts using numerical weather prediction models (NWP) are becoming increasingly important. The objective of this study is to understand meteorological characteristics pertaining to large errors (i.e., outlier events) of GHI day-ahead forecasts obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency, for nine electric power areas during four years from 2014 to 2017. Under outlier events in GHI day-ahead forecasts, several sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns were found in 80 events during the four years; (a) a western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean (frequency per 80 outlier events; 48.8%), (b) stationary fronts (20.0%), (c) a synoptic-scale cyclone (18.8%), and (d) typhoons (tropical cyclones) (8.8%) around the Japanese islands. In this study, the four case studies of the worst outlier events were performed. A remarkable SLP pattern was the case of the western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean around Japan. The comparison between regionally integrated GHI day-ahead forecast errors and cloudiness forecasts suggests that the issue of accuracy of cloud forecasts in high- and mid-levels troposphere in NWPs will remain in the future.

Area day‐ahead photovoltaic power prediction by just‐in‐time modeling with meso‐scale ensemble prediction system

“…Ohtake et al 6 . analyzed weather conditions around Japan in case of large errors that occurred in MSM GHI prediction, and described features of such errors 6 …”

“…However, GHI prediction may go wide off the mark from the viewpoint of power system operation even in numerical forecast systems. Ohtake et al 6 analyzed weather conditions around Japan in case of large errors that occurred in MSM GHI prediction, and described features of such errors. 6 Apart from forecasts based on the physical models, there are also PV power or GHI prediction methods based on black-box models.…”

“…Ohtake et al 6 analyzed weather conditions around Japan in case of large errors that occurred in MSM GHI prediction, and described features of such errors. 6 Apart from forecasts based on the physical models, there are also PV power or GHI prediction methods based on black-box models. With such methods, numerical forecast data such as MSM are used as inputs, and corresponding measured values are used as an output to build a database; this database is then used to calculate GHI forecast values (or directly PV power values) through statistical methods or machine learning.…”

Research on a Two-Layer Optimal Dispatching Method Considering the Mutual Aid of Peak Regulating Resources among Regional Power Grids

“…In the studies of the optimization dispatching method in [18,19], the feasibility of peak regulation between regional power grids is verified. In [20,21], to solve the possible shortage problems of peak regulating resources, a transaction mechanism for peak regulation auxiliary service between the regional power grids is proposed, and a clearing pricing model is first constructed. In [22,23], based on an analysis of the power source and load characteristics of multiple regions, a typical peak-valley mutual aid operation scheme is given, and the typical operation mode and economic evaluation results are optimized.…”