Background
Only 50% of atrial fibrillation (
AF
) patients recommended for oral anticoagulation (
OAC
) use these medications, and less than half of them adhere to
OAC
. In a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries newly diagnosed with
AF
, we identified groups of patients with similar trajectories of
OAC
use and adherence, and evaluated patient characteristics affecting group membership.
Methods and Results
We selected continuously enrolled Medicare Part D beneficiaries with first
AF
diagnosis in 2014 to 2015 (n=34 898). We calculated the proportion of days covered with
OAC
over the first 12 months after diagnosis and identified
OAC
adherence trajectories using group‐based trajectory models. We constructed multinomial logistic regression models to evaluate how demographics, system‐level factors, and clinical characteristics were associated with group membership. We identified 4 trajectories of
OAC
adherence: patients who never used
OAC
(43.8%), late
OAC
initiators (7.6%), early
OAC
discontinuers (8.9%), and continuously adherent patients (40.1%). Predictors such as sex, black race, residence in the South, or
HAS
‐
BLED
score were associated with not only
OAC
use, but also the timing of initiation and the likelihood of discontinuation. For example,
HAS
‐
BLED
score ≥4 was associated with a higher likelihood of not using
OAC
(odds ratio 1.35; 95%
CI
, 1.14–1.62), of late initiation (1.55; 95%
CI
, 1.11–2.05), and of early discontinuation (odds ratio 1.35; 95%
CI
, 1.01–1.84).
Conclusions
We identified 4 distinct trajectories of
OAC
adherence after first
AF
diagnosis, with <45% of newly diagnosed
AF
patients belonging to the trajectory group characterized by continuous
OAC
adherence. Trajectories were associated not only with demographic and clinical characteristics but also with regional factors.