Out with the Old, In with the Old: A Closer Look at Younger Versus Older Elderly Migration^*

Abstract

Objective. This research examines the migration behavior of the elderly, recognizing that the older and younger elderly may make different decisions and have different consequences for the states in which they live. Methods. Using U.S. Census migration flow data, we describe the movements of the younger and older elderly. Our econometric analysis brings together the wisdom of elderly migration research that focuses on motives (amenity vs. return/assistance) and the Tiebout-related research that considers the effects of policy. Results. We find that all elderly age groups avoid moving to states with high estate/inheritance/gift taxes, although the effect weakens with age. Likewise, the younger elderly appear to be ''shopping around'' for destinations with a temperate climate and favorable government policies regarding income taxes and welfare spending, whereas the older elderly are more likely to be ''driven out'' of their origin state by a high cost of living and income and property taxes. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that both the patterns of migration and the factors that affect migration decisions differ between the younger and older elderly.By the year 2030, one of every five people will be age 65 and older, with the population aged 85 and older projected to grow the most (U.S. Census, 1996). Such trends figure prominently in current discussions regarding the long-term solvency of the two biggest federal programs, Social Security and Medicare.

The effect of income taxes on interstate migration: an analysis by age and race

“…(3) race (Cebula 1974;Clark et al 1996;Enchautegui 1997;Lee and Roseman 1999); (4) age (Cebula 1974;Clark and Hunter 1992;Clark et al 1996;Milligan 2000;Conway and Houtenville 1998, 2001, 2003; (5) public goods and amenities (Cebula and Vedder 1973;Cebula 1979Cebula , 1990Clark and Hunter 1992;Robert 1999;Conway and Houtenville 1998, 2001, 2003 The present study differs from this prior research in several ways. First, it examines the effects of income taxes on interstate migration for three separate age groups (19-25, 28-36, and 35-43) and two races (whites and African-Americans).…”

“…His results indicated that taxes, as measured by the per capita state and local tax burden, have a negative effect on migration. Conway and Houtenville (1998, 2001, 2003, in a series of three articles, looked at a topic that has been extensively studied: the migrating habits of the elderly. Using data from the 1990 Census in all three studies and looking at several different types of taxes, including income taxes, death taxes, and sales taxes, the authors found that taxes, in general, retard migration to a given state.…”

“…(1) climate (Clark and Hunter 1992;Clark et al 1996;Conway and Houtenville 1998, 2001, 2003Cebula 2007); (2) employment opportunities (Cebula and Vedder 1973;Clark and Hunter 1992);…”

Population, Migration, Ageing and Health: A Survey

“…Conway and Houtenville (2003) examine patterns of elderly migration by age groups using data from the 1990 US Census. Younger elderly migrants' location decisions are mainly affected by characteristics such as the presence of specific amenities, climate and government fiscal policies; older migrants are more likely to react to push factors driving them out of their origin state, such as income and property taxes and the cost of living in their origin country.…”

Migration, Environment and Public Health: Theory and Interdisciplinary Research from a Regional Science Perspective

“…Tiebout accepted Samuelson's definition (1954) of a public good: no individual consumption of such a good subtracts from another's consumption of that good. The arguments in Tullock (1971, p. 917) paralleled Tiebout (1956) but were arguably a bit more -realistic,‖ as revealed by his words to the effect that -…the individual deciding where to live will take into account the private effects upon himself of the bundle of government services and taxes.‖ Moreover, extensions of the Tiebout (1956) framework on a larger scale came to include income taxes and formal estimates of -fiscal surplus‖ (Cebula and Alexander, 2006;Conway and Houtenville, 1998;2001;2003;Gale and Heath, 2000).…”