Out of the ordinary: Finding hidden threats by analyzing unusual behavior

Hollywood, John S.; Snyder, Diane; McKay, Kenneth N.; Boon, John E.

doi:10.1037/e658632010-001

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

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“…In addition, radicalized inmates can blend more easily into the day-to-day disorder of the situation under conditions of breakdown. Without stability, it is more difficult to detect unusual signals (Hollywood, Snyder, McKay, and Boon, 2004). The very definition of deviance will become uncertain and murky.…”

Section: Useem • Claytonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radicalization of U.S. prisoners

Useem¹,

Clayton

2009

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research Summary Concern has been expressed that prisoner radicalization poses a high probability threat to the safety of the United States. Although the threat of terrorist acts planned in prison is known to be above zero because of a nearly executed terrorist plot hatched in a state prison, the central finding of this research is that the actual probability is modest. The reasons for a modest probability are fourfold: Order and stability in U.S. prisons were achieved during the buildup period, prison officials successfully implemented efforts to counter the “importation” of radicalism, correctional leadership infused antiradicalization into their agencies, and inmates' low levels of education decreased the appeals of terrorism. Policy Implications The prison environment permits a great deal of information to be collected on the activities and, more difficult to detect, planned activities of inmates after they are released. This environment requires the attentive observation of staff, collection of information from inmates, and efforts at different levels of a correctional agency to assemble, collate, and assess information; much of it is likely to be false and some will be vital.

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Section: Useem • Claytonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radicalization of U.S. prisoners

Useem¹,

Clayton

2009

Criminology & Public Policy

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“…In rule-based discovery, generalizations and indicators substitute for moles and material evidence. The start point, therefore, is not intelligence gathering but knowledge management (Hollywood et al, 2004). Intelligence agencies already have a stock of knowledge about terrorism and terrorists that they review and update as new information becomes available.…”

Section: Behavioural Pattern Recognitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Terrorist Detection Systems

Koc-Menard¹

2009

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management

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Industrialized countries face the challenge of spotting international terrorists at points of entry and homegrown terrorists on their borders. This paper reviews the development of detection programs since 9/11 and identifies three emerging trends that, it argues, will shape the security environment in North America in the years to come. The first trend is a move away from evidence-based detection to rule-based discovery. The second trend is a move away from the observation of actual behaviour to the analysis of electronic records. The third trend is a move away from national discovery systems to multinational structures. The paper will explain each of these three trends and briefly explore their implications for individual privacy.

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“…In light of the emergence of complex and nonlinear threats, some students of the subject have looked for alternatives to the traditional analytical process. Their suggestions include the use of power cycle theory which can provide predictions of nonlinearity (Doran 1999), the development of new warning methodologies based on quantum rather than Newtonian thinking (Bodnar 2003), and the adoption of Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing that can identify out‐of‐ordinary behavior as an indication for a possible attack (Hollywood, Snyder, McKay, and Boon 2004). A more concrete study aimed at obtaining a high quality warning against terrorist attacks identified 68 indications for the planning of such attacks and showed how to analyze them (Khalsa 2004).…”

Section: Intelligence Reforms: Looking For the Key Under The Lampmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change the Analyst and Not the System: A Different Approach to Intelligence Reform

Bar‐Joseph

McDermott

2008

Foreign Policy Analysis

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Recent intelligence failures, including first and foremost the mistaken estimate of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) prior to the war, show that a prime source of such failures is the adherence by analysts to preconceptions (or mind-sets) which entail the rejection of new information that contradicts it. The source of this kind of problem lies in well known psychological mechanisms. Yet official investigations into intelligence blunders have typically ignored this problem or have not suggested an appropriate solution thus far. Our paper suggests an original approach based on the fact that certain types of personalities are more likely than others to fall victim to these biased judgments. Existing psychological tests can help determine individual susceptibility to such tendencies. Therefore we suggest that intelligence organizations should pay far more attention to these personality characteristics, especially an analyst's level of openness, in recruitment, training, and promotion. Such attention would help create more effective reforms in intelligence than organizational models which advocate ''devil's advocate'' kind of solutions.

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Out of the ordinary: Finding hidden threats by analyzing unusual behavior

Cited by 17 publications

References 0 publications

Radicalization of U.S. prisoners

Radicalization of U.S. prisoners

Trends in Terrorist Detection Systems

Change the Analyst and Not the System: A Different Approach to Intelligence Reform

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