Out of Sight, Out of Mind? Geographic and Social Predictors of Flood Risk Awareness

Abstract

The persistent gap in flood risk awareness in Canada, and elsewhere in North America, is a continual source of worry for researchers and emergency managers; many people living in at‐risk places are simply unaware of risks and of their proximity to hazards. This study seeks to understand which residents were aware of flood risk, using unique representative survey data of Calgary residents living in the city's flood‐prone neighborhoods collected after the devastating and costly 2013 Southern Alberta Flood. The article uses logistic regression models to analyze which residents were aware of risk to their homes. Findings indicate that, in addition to various demographic predictors, many of the geographic predictors (including the elevation of one's home relative to the river) are significant predictors of awareness. Having a direct sight line to one of Calgary's two rivers is also a significant predictor in some of the models, suggesting that the visibility of hazards matters for flood risk perception, although this effect fades when many of the geographic predictors are added. Finally, the models indicate that several variables related to local, neighborhood‐based social networks are significant as well. These findings reveal that both physical surroundings and social context are important for understanding risk awareness. The article concludes by discussing the relevance for social science research on disasters and hazards, as well as for planners and emergency managers.

The importance of public risk perception for the effective management of pluvial floods in urban areas: A case study from Germany

“…Older people have higher levels of personal risk perception, which is in line with Knocke and Kolivras (2007) and Kellens et al (2011) and in contrast to Botzen et al (2009) and Salvati et al (2014). In contrast to Liu et al (2018) and Gray‐Scholz et al (2019) the results of this study showed that low education levels are associated with high levels of personal risk perception. Similar results were found in Botzen et al (2009) and Frondel et al (2017).…”

“…This may also influence the determinants of risk perception and mitigation behaviour. Additional reasons for the low level of personal risk perception can be the high degree of trust in technologies and the improved level of flood protection over time (Gray‐Scholz et al, 2019). Walker and Burningham (2011) and Armas et al (2015) concluded that poorer and less educated people are more exposed to flood risk.…”

“…Thus, there is a need for further research to examine the extent to which risk perception and other factors determine mitigation behaviour (Maidl & Buchecker, 2015; Roder et al, 2019). Gray‐Scholz et al (2019) also highlighted the lack of research on the determinants of risk perception.…”

“…Another example for contradictory results is education. Liu et al (2018) and Gray‐Scholz et al (2019) determined that higher education is connected with higher risk perception. However, Botzen et al (2009) and Frondel et al (2017) found evidence for the opposite.…”

“…Despite the severe damage caused by pluvial floods and the increasing risk of occurrence, research on public risk perception in this context is lacking. Risk perception research currently focuses on river flooding (Gray-Scholz, Haney, & MacQuarrie, 2019;Liu, Li, Shen, Xie, & Zhang, 2018;Ludy & Kondolf, 2012) coastal floods (Kellens, Zaalberg, Neutens, Vanneuville, & Maeyer, 2011), coastal flooding because of hurricanes (Shao, Xian, Lin, & Small, 2017), floods in mountain areas triggering landslides (Miceli, Sotgiu, & Settanni, 2008), and climate change in general (van der Linden, 2015).…”