Out of Africa: what drives the pressure to emigrate?

Abstract

Abstract.Who intends to leave Africa and what drives the pressure to emigrate? For four African countries (Ghana, Senegal, Morocco and Egypt) we evaluate the strength of push and pull factors in stating emigration intentions 'out of Africa'. In general, one can say that the typical potential migrant is young, male, optimistic about attaining a higher living standard and finding a job and having relatively modern values compared to those who intend to stay. Classical push factors like unemployment and poverty are present in most countries. The most notable finding is extent with which the optimism surrounding the net benefits of migration drives emigration intentions out of Africa, especially in Ghana and Senegal. Besides this general observation, each and every country tells a different story. Signs of positive self-selection with respect to the level of education of potential migrants are clearly present in Ghana and Egypt, especially among women. However, negative self-selection applies to the case of Moroccan men. The network effects of potential migrants turn out to be of some importance in Ghana and Egypt. However, in Senegal and Morocco such ties are apparently not as important as one might expect from studies of actual migration behaviour. In Morocco the prevailing migration culture offers a plausible explanation and in Senegal the high frequency of migration in regions with an established migration history offers some of the services that network ties might offer.JEL classification: F22, O52, P2

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