As the rapid development of national economy and urban construction, the land of urban construction is scarce increasingly. So the coal mine goaf as construction land has become a kind of effective way to relieve the strain on land. In this article, through analyzing the distribution characteristics, mining time, mining area and the ground deformation damage in Qishan coal mine goaf and Quantai coal mine goaf of the Xuzhou mineral group, predicting residual deformation of surface collapse of the goaf with the probability integral method. The evaluation is divided into not stable, relatively stable and stable, and puts forward prevention measures and suggestions to the goaf ground so that the geological basis is provided for engineering construction.