Origins and Levels of Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Skill for United States Surface Air Temperatures Determined by Canonical Correlation Analysis

Barnett, T. P.; Preisendorfer, Rudolph W.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1825:oaloma>2.0.co;2

Cited by 578 publications

(404 citation statements)

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“…This first, shared step represents the first tier in a multitiered forecasting scheme. The twotiered scheme is introduced by Bengtsson et al (1993) and Barnett et al (1994). The three approaches differ in what comes next.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ENSO-active winters are defined to occur when December-February Niño-3.4 detrended SST exceeds its one-standard-deviation (1 ) threshold. El Niño years are defined to be 1958, 1966, 1969, 1973, 1983, 1987, and 1992, and La Niña years are 1950, 1956, 1971, 1974, 1976, 1985, and 1989. Practical reasons for this definition are discussed by Gershunov (1998).…”

Section: A Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting and Downscaling ENSO Impacts on Intraseasonal Precipitation Statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event

Gershunov¹,

Barnett²,

Cayan³

et al. 2000

J. Hydrometeor

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Three long-range forecasting methods have been evaluated for prediction and downscaling of seasonal and intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California. Full-statistical, hybrid-dynamical-statistical and full-dynamical approaches have been used to forecast El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related total precipitation, daily precipitation frequency, and average intensity anomalies during the January-March season. For El Niño winters, the hybrid approach emerges as the best performer, while La Niña forecasting skill is poor. The full-statistical forecasting method features reasonable forecasting skill for both La Niña and El Niño winters. The performance of the full-dynamical approach could not be evaluated as rigorously as that of the other two forecasting schemes. Although the full-dynamical forecasting approach is expected to outperform simpler forecasting schemes in the long run, evidence is presented to conclude that, at present, the full-dynamical forecasting approach is the least viable of the three, at least in California. The authors suggest that operational forecasting of any intraseasonal temperature, precipitation, or streamflow statistic derivable from the available records is possible now for ENSOextreme years.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting and Downscaling ENSO Impacts on Intraseasonal Precipitation Statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event

Gershunov¹,

Barnett²,

Cayan³

et al. 2000

J. Hydrometeor

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show abstract

“…the reduction of the dimensionality of the initial data sets before the application of CCA (Zorita et al, 1992;Knappenberger and Michaels, 1993;Corte-Real et al, 1995;Diaz et al, 1998;Xoplaki et al, 2000). This is considered necessary in order to avoid, on the one hand, quasi-degeneracy of the autocovariance matrices of the data sets and, on the other hand, to filter the data by eliminating the noise (Barnett and Preisendorfer, 1987;Bretherton et al, 1992). Then, CCA is applied on the two pairs of the resultant factor scores time series: sensible heat flux-precipitation and latent heat flux-precipitation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relation between sensible and latent heat fluxes in the Mediterranean and precipitation in the Greek area during winter

Lolis

Bartzokas

Katsoulis

2004

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The variability of sensible and latent heat fluxes in the Mediterranean Sea and their effect on precipitation in the Greek area during the winter months are investigated for the 39 year period 1959-97 by using multivariate statistical methods. First, factor analysis is applied, mainly as a data reduction tool, and then canonical correlation analysis is applied on the factor scores time series of the two pairs, i.e. sensible heat flux-precipitation and latent heat flux-precipitation, to reveal their interrelations. The results show there is a statistically significant relationship between sensible and latent heat fluxes over the western Mediterranean Sea and precipitation in the western windward areas of Greece. The sensible and latent heat fluxes in the western Mediterranean Sea contribute significantly to depression development. The depressions formed advect cold and dry air masses over the western Mediterranean, reinforcing these sensible and latent heat fluxes. Furthermore, these depressions lead to a southerly or southwesterly airflow over Greece. This flow, along with the existence of potential instability, significantly contributes to precipitation formation in the windward areas of western Greece and also in the islands of the eastern Aegean Sea.

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“…[7] Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) [e.g., Barnett and Preisendorfer, 1987] is the mathematical technique used to set up the simulation MOS recalibration equations. This technique identifies patterns of variability that are highly correlated.…”

Section: Data and Mos-pp Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting southern African summer rainfall using a combination of MOS and perfect prognosis

Landman

Goddard

2005

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] A statistical-dynamical approach to probabilistic precipitation forecasts of southern African summer rainfall is described and validated. An ensemble of seasonal precipitation and circulation fields is obtained from the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Model output statistics (MOS) then spatially recalibrate the AGCM fields relative to observations. Although the MOS equations are built using the simulation data, in which observed SSTs force the AGCM, the same set of equations can be applied to the predicted data, in which predicted SSTs force the AGCM. The use of prediction data in a set of equations developed for simulations, assumes that the AGCM forecast skill approximates its simulation skill and that the systematic biases of the AGCM do not change in a prediction setting; this assumption is analogous to a perfect prognosis (PP) approach. Probabilistic forecast skill is assessed using this MOS-PP-recalibration scheme for 3 equi-probable categories using a 3-year-out cross-validation approach. High skill scores are found over the north-eastern interior of the region, with marginal skill over the remainder of the austral summer rainfall regions. When skill is assessed for only the wettest and driest of the years, high skill appears over most of the region. Citation: Landman, W. A., and L. Goddard (2005), Predicting southern African summer rainfall using a combination of MOS and perfect prognosis, Geophys.

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Origins and Levels of Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Skill for United States Surface Air Temperatures Determined by Canonical Correlation Analysis

Cited by 578 publications

References 0 publications

Predicting and Downscaling ENSO Impacts on Intraseasonal Precipitation Statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event

Predicting and Downscaling ENSO Impacts on Intraseasonal Precipitation Statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event

Relation between sensible and latent heat fluxes in the Mediterranean and precipitation in the Greek area during winter

Predicting southern African summer rainfall using a combination of MOS and perfect prognosis

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