Origin of the Wang&amp;#8211;Sheeley&amp;#8211;Arge solar wind model

Sheeley,; Neil, R

doi:10.5194/hgss-8-21-2017

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Although the relative importance of the areal expansion factor and the minimum angular distance for specifying the characteristics of the magnetic field configuration in the solar corona is still under debate [see, 47], the WSA model has become one of the workhorse models in the space weather community [e.g., 57]. The coupled WSA/Enlil model is now routinely used by the Space Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency, and the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre for operational space weather predictions of the solar wind state in the interplanetary medium and the arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. II. An Adaptive Prediction System for Specifying Solar Wind Speed near the Sun

Reiss

MacNeice

Muglach

et al. 2020

ApJ

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The ambient solar wind flows and fields influence the complex propagation dynamics of coronal mass ejections in the interplanetary medium and play an essential role in shaping Earth's space weather environment. A critical scientific goal in the space weather research and prediction community is to develop, implement and optimize numerical models for specifying the large-scale properties of solar wind conditions at the inner boundary of the heliospheric model domain. Here we present an adaptive prediction system that fuses information from in situ measurements of the solar wind into numerical models to better match the global solar wind model solutions near the Sun with prevailing physical conditions in the vicinity of Earth. In this way, we attempt to advance the predictive capabilities of well-established solar wind models for specifying solar wind speed, including the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. In particular, we use the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model for mapping the solar wind solutions from the near-Sun environment to the vicinity of Earth. In addition, we present the newly developed Tunable HUX (THUX) model which solves the viscous form of the underlying Burgers equation. We perform a statistical analysis of the resulting solar wind predictions for the time 2006-2015. The proposed prediction scheme improves all the investigated coronal/heliospheric model combinations and produces better estimates of the solar wind state at Earth than our reference baseline model. We discuss why this is the case, and conclude that our findings have important implications for future practice in applied space weather research and prediction.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. II. An Adaptive Prediction System for Specifying Solar Wind Speed near the Sun

Reiss

MacNeice

Muglach

et al. 2020

ApJ

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“…As Yi‐Ming began to extend our work into the heliosphere, it was not long before he confirmed the inverse correlation between expansion rate of coronal magnetic fields and the distant speed of the solar wind (Levine et al, ; Wang & Sheeley, ), which eventually let to the WSA‐enlil forecasting model (Arge & Pizzo, ; Arge et al, ; Pizzo et al, ; Sheeley, ). Yi‐Ming and I were happy that the model was being used by the NOAA space weather forecasters, and we were pleased that it helped justify the continued financial support of solar physics at the Office of Naval Research.…”

Section: Forty Years At Nrl In Washington DCmentioning

confidence: 95%

Memorable Events During a Research Career

Sheeley¹

2019

JGR Space Physics

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In this paper, I sketch a path through my research career in solar and heliospheric physics, recalling some memorable events and discoveries that occurred along the way. This chain of events begins with an influential Time magazine article in 1955 and progresses through a summer at Bell Labs, 9 years at Caltech, 7 years at the Kitt Peak National Observatory, 43 years at the Naval Research Laboratory, and ends with a digitized map of the Sun's Ca II K‐Line emission in 1919 when the AGU was born. Accidents and puzzling results are often the keys to progress and should be examined carefully.

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“…In 2004, Arge and Odstrcil began working to couple WSA with Odstrcil's 3‐D MHD model of the heliosphere, which was subsequently named ENLIL. The coupled WSA/ENLIL model has become one of the workhorse models of both research and forecast communities (see; Sheeley, ). As of April 2018, the CCMC has used these models to service more than 7,000 user requests for ambient solar wind runs and has executed more that 20,000 near‐real‐time WSA/ENLIL runs to feed its Integrate Space Weather Analysis system.…”

Section: Model Historymentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Quality of Models of the Ambient Solar Wind

et al. 2018

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In this paper we present an assessment of the status of models of the global solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We limit our discussion to the class of models designed to provide solar wind forecasts, excluding those designed for the purpose of testing physical processes in idealized configurations. In addition, we limit our discussion to modeling of the ambient wind in the absence of coronal mass ejections. In this assessment we cover use of the models both in forecast mode and as tools for scientific research. We present a brief history of the development of these models, discussing the range of physical approximations in use. We discuss the limitations of the data inputs available to these models and its impact on their quality. We also discuss current model development trends. Empirical ModelsModeling of the solar coronal magnetic field began in earnest in the early 1960s with the advent of computers and the availability of photospheric magnetograms. The earliest models of the inner coronal field were based

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Origin of the Wang–Sheeley–Arge solar wind model

Cited by 17 publications

References 16 publications

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. II. An Adaptive Prediction System for Specifying Solar Wind Speed near the Sun

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. II. An Adaptive Prediction System for Specifying Solar Wind Speed near the Sun

Memorable Events During a Research Career

Assessing the Quality of Models of the Ambient Solar Wind

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