Origin of seasonal predictability for summer climate over the Northwestern Pacific

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang‐Ping; Lau, Ngar Cheung; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1215582110

Cited by 271 publications

(251 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…It is noted that this mechanism tends to amplify both the SAM and EAM precipitation simultaneously in the boreal summer. The ENSO efficiently excites the PJ teleconnection pattern associated with the WNPSH by inducing IO SST anomalies as an initial perturbation (Kosaka et al 2013;Chowdary et al 2014).…”

Section: Relative Role Of Tropical Sst Forcing In Numerical Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

Seo

Lee

et al. 2017

Clim Dyn

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with decaying El Niño and developing Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) warming anomalies; the other is the negative inter-correlation, resulting from developing El Niño and western Pacific SST cooling. The IODM mode also has a delayed impact on the negative connection by modulating Eurasian snow cover. The observed evidence reveals that the recent intensification of the negative relationship is attributable to the strengthening of the zonal SST gradient along the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, and eastern Pacific. Analysis of experiments in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project further indicates a possibility for the negative linkage to be further enhanced under anthropogenic global warming with considerable interdecadal modulation in mid and late twentyfirst century.

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Section: Relative Role Of Tropical Sst Forcing In Numerical Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The tropical teleconnection is called the western North Pacific-North America (WPNA) pattern, including the WPSH as an important factor bridging the SAM and EAM climate (Wang et al 2001;Kosaka et al 2013;Lee et al 2013a, b).…”

Section: Decaying Ensomentioning

confidence: 99%

Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

Seo

Lee

et al. 2017

Clim Dyn

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“…The most pronounced feature of the C-mode circulation pattern is the anomalous lowlevel Northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWP-AC). This important large-scale atmospheric feature links ENSO impacts to the Asian Monsoon systems (20)(21)(22)(23)(24)(25) by shifting rainfall patterns (SI Appendix, Fig. S1B), and it drives sea level changes in the tropical Western Pacific that impact coastal systems (26).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño−Southern Oscillation frequency cascade

Stuecker

Jin

Timmermann

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most pronounced feature of internally generated climate variability, occurs on interannual timescales and impacts the global climate system through an interaction with the annual cycle. The tight coupling between ENSO and the annual cycle is particularly pronounced over the tropical Western Pacific. Here we show that this nonlinear interaction results in a frequency cascade in the atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by deterministic highfrequency variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Through climate model experiments and observational analysis, it is documented that a substantial fraction of the anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone variability, which is the main atmospheric link between ENSO and the East Asian Monsoon system, can be explained by these interactions and is thus deterministic and potentially predictable.ENSO | frequency cascade | combination mode | annual cycle | monsoon

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“…To account for possible transoceanic interactions addressed by some studies (Hong et al, 2014b), the NAO index, referred to as the meridional seesaw of the SLP field with the northern and southern centres near Iceland and the Azores, respectively, is also included. Furthermore, as the predictand of interest is highly related to summertime tropical cyclone (TC) activity, the list contains the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Baldwin et al, 2001), WP, and PJ indices (Choi et al, 2010;Kosaka et al, 2013). The QBO depicts a quasiperiodic oscillation between easterlies (positive) and westerlies (negative phase) over the lower tropical stratosphere, and the period is approximately 20-36 months.…”

Section: Streamflow Data Teleconnection Indices and Other Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations in the correlation between teleconnections and Taiwan's streamflow

Chen

Lee

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Interannual variations in catchment streamflow represent an integrated response to anomalies in regional moisture transport and atmospheric circulations and are ultimately linked to large-scale climate oscillations. This study conducts correlation analysis to calculate how summertime (July–September, JAS) streamflow data derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream gauges in Taiwan correlate with 14 teleconnection indices in the current or preceding seasons. We find that the western Pacific (WP) and Pacific–Japan (PJ) patterns, both of which play a critical role in determining cyclonic activity in the western North Pacific basin, exhibit the highest concurrent correlations (most significant r = 0. 50) with the JAS flows in Taiwan. Alternatively, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) averaged over the period from the previous October to June of the current year is significantly correlated with the JAS flows (most significant r = −0. 66), indicating some forecasting utility. By further examining the correlation results using a 20-year moving window, peculiar temporal variations and possible climate regime shifts (CRSs) can be revealed. A CRS test is employed to identify suspicious and abrupt changes in the correlation. The late 1970s and 1990s are identified as two significant change points. During the intermediate period, Taiwan's streamflow and the PJ index exhibit a marked in-phase relationship (r > 0. 8). It is verified that the two shifts are in concordance with the alteration of large-scale circulations in the Pacific basin by investigating the changes in pattern correlation and composite maps before and after the change point. Our results suggest that empirical forecasting techniques should take into account the effect of CRSs on predictor screening.

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Origin of seasonal predictability for summer climate over the Northwestern Pacific

Cited by 271 publications

References 39 publications

Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

El Niño−Southern Oscillation frequency cascade

Variations in the correlation between teleconnections and Taiwan's streamflow

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