Abstract:In plants, prolonged dormancy is often considered a response to resource depletion or environmental stress that comes at a fitness cost. However, apparent costs of dormancy could reflect the state in which plants entered dormancy, rather than effects of dormancy per se. We tested this hypothesis for a terrestrial orchid, Epipactis atrorubens, by analyzing differences in vital rates of dormant and emergent plants using generalized linear mixed models, applied to eight years of demographic data. Dormant E. atror… Show more
“…A similar result was found in the previous study of E. atrorubens (Jäkäläniemi et al . ). A table of vital rates for each species from the best‐fit model is presented in Appendix S1 (Tables S5 and S6).…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…; Hutchings ; Jacquemyn, Brys & Jongejans ; Jäkäläniemi et al . ; Gremer, Crone & Lesica ; Sletvold et al . ).…”
Section: Discussionunclassified
“…Dormant plants do not necessarily form one homogenous stage class, because previous studies have shown that the performance of individual plants after dormancy depends on the pre‐dormancy stage class (Jäkäläniemi et al . ; Gremer, Crone & Lesica ). To determine the number of dormant stage classes for our study species, we tested whether the stage before disappearing affects the re‐emergence and survival rates.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Other vital rates were determined with generalized linear models (GLMs) (Sletvold, Øien & Moen ; Jäkäläniemi et al . ; Sletvold et al . ) fit with the glm function in R (R Core Team ).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Most commonly, when individuals are not seen to re‐emerge, they are assumed to be dead after a certain number of years, and often, death is assumed to occur during the first year of disappearance (Hutchings , ; Nicolè, Brzosko & Till‐Bottraud ; Coates, Lunt & Tremblay ; Lesica & Crone ; Jacquemyn, Brys & Jongejans ; Sletvold, Øien & Moen ; Jäkäläniemi et al . ; Gremer, Crone & Lesica ; Gremer & Sala ; Sletvold et al . ; Tuomi et al .…”
Summary
Many perennial plants experience prolonged dormancy, meaning they do not grow above‐ground for one or several growing seasons. When plants disappear (fail to sprout) and have not been recorded to re‐emerge, they either have died or are alive and dormant. In demographic studies of such species, researchers have been forced to make assumptions about death versus dormancy. Little is known about the consequences of these assumptions for predictions from the population models used in the studies.
Here, we define survival of dormancy‐prone plants in three distinct ways: Separate, Instant and Slow death. In the Separate death model, plants are assumed to die either in emergent or in dormant stages. Death can also be described as a process of disappearance followed by dying, either in the first year below‐ground (Instant death) or with constant mortality rate in any given dormant year (Slow death). Using simulated data with known parameter values, we test whether survival and re‐emergence rates are confounded in these life‐history models.
Using a general model and models for two orchid species (Epipactis atrorubens and Isotria medeoloides), we test how different assumptions about dormancy (Instant and Slow death) affect predictions about population dynamics: population growth rate, generation time, relative reproductive values, life expectancies, and sensitivity and elasticity of population growth rate to stage transitions and vital rates.
Our results confirm that survival and re‐emergence rates of dormancy‐prone plant species are difficult to estimate; parameters were separable only with the assumptions of Instant and Slow death. Both theoretical and empirical analyses show that the predictions of population growth rate and generation time do not depend on the assumptions made about the fate of the plants after their disappearance.
Synthesis. Assumptions about dormancy affect some, but not all predictions, about plant population dynamics. In the studies of species with unobservable stages, assumptions about dormancy should be carefully defined and possible consequences of these assumptions for the predictions of the population model should be evaluated. Nonetheless, if we are only interested in overall population viability, ad hoc models of prolonged dormancy are sufficient as a first step.
“…A similar result was found in the previous study of E. atrorubens (Jäkäläniemi et al . ). A table of vital rates for each species from the best‐fit model is presented in Appendix S1 (Tables S5 and S6).…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…; Hutchings ; Jacquemyn, Brys & Jongejans ; Jäkäläniemi et al . ; Gremer, Crone & Lesica ; Sletvold et al . ).…”
Section: Discussionunclassified
“…Dormant plants do not necessarily form one homogenous stage class, because previous studies have shown that the performance of individual plants after dormancy depends on the pre‐dormancy stage class (Jäkäläniemi et al . ; Gremer, Crone & Lesica ). To determine the number of dormant stage classes for our study species, we tested whether the stage before disappearing affects the re‐emergence and survival rates.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Other vital rates were determined with generalized linear models (GLMs) (Sletvold, Øien & Moen ; Jäkäläniemi et al . ; Sletvold et al . ) fit with the glm function in R (R Core Team ).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Most commonly, when individuals are not seen to re‐emerge, they are assumed to be dead after a certain number of years, and often, death is assumed to occur during the first year of disappearance (Hutchings , ; Nicolè, Brzosko & Till‐Bottraud ; Coates, Lunt & Tremblay ; Lesica & Crone ; Jacquemyn, Brys & Jongejans ; Sletvold, Øien & Moen ; Jäkäläniemi et al . ; Gremer, Crone & Lesica ; Gremer & Sala ; Sletvold et al . ; Tuomi et al .…”
Summary
Many perennial plants experience prolonged dormancy, meaning they do not grow above‐ground for one or several growing seasons. When plants disappear (fail to sprout) and have not been recorded to re‐emerge, they either have died or are alive and dormant. In demographic studies of such species, researchers have been forced to make assumptions about death versus dormancy. Little is known about the consequences of these assumptions for predictions from the population models used in the studies.
Here, we define survival of dormancy‐prone plants in three distinct ways: Separate, Instant and Slow death. In the Separate death model, plants are assumed to die either in emergent or in dormant stages. Death can also be described as a process of disappearance followed by dying, either in the first year below‐ground (Instant death) or with constant mortality rate in any given dormant year (Slow death). Using simulated data with known parameter values, we test whether survival and re‐emergence rates are confounded in these life‐history models.
Using a general model and models for two orchid species (Epipactis atrorubens and Isotria medeoloides), we test how different assumptions about dormancy (Instant and Slow death) affect predictions about population dynamics: population growth rate, generation time, relative reproductive values, life expectancies, and sensitivity and elasticity of population growth rate to stage transitions and vital rates.
Our results confirm that survival and re‐emergence rates of dormancy‐prone plant species are difficult to estimate; parameters were separable only with the assumptions of Instant and Slow death. Both theoretical and empirical analyses show that the predictions of population growth rate and generation time do not depend on the assumptions made about the fate of the plants after their disappearance.
Synthesis. Assumptions about dormancy affect some, but not all predictions, about plant population dynamics. In the studies of species with unobservable stages, assumptions about dormancy should be carefully defined and possible consequences of these assumptions for the predictions of the population model should be evaluated. Nonetheless, if we are only interested in overall population viability, ad hoc models of prolonged dormancy are sufficient as a first step.
Matrix population models are widely used to assess population status and to inform management decisions. Despite existing theories for building such models, model construction is often partially based on expert opinion. So far, model structure has received relatively little attention, although it may affect estimates of population dynamics. Here, we assessed the consequences of two published matrix structures (a 4 × 4 matrix based on expert opinion and a 10 × 10 matrix based on statistical modeling) for estimates of vital rates and stochastic population dynamics of the long-lived herb Astragalus scaphoides. We explored the ways in which choice of model structure alters the accuracy (i.e., mean) and precision (i.e., variance) of predicted population dynamics. We found that model structure had a negligible effect on the accuracy and precision of vital rates and stochastic stage distribution. However, the 10 × 10 matrix produced lower estimates of stochastic population growth rates than the 4 × 4 matrix, and more accurately predicted the observed trends in population abundance for three out of four study populations. Moreover, estimates of realized variation in population growth rate due to fluctuations in population stage structure over time were occasionally sensitive to matrix structure, suggesting differential roles of transient dynamics. Our study indicates that statistical modeling for choosing categories in matrix models might be preferable over expert opinion to accurately predict population trends and can provide a more objective way for model construction when the biological knowledge of the species is limited.
K E Y W O R D Sdemography, matrix population model, plant population dynamics, stochasticity, vital rates
The genetic structure and diversity of species is determined by both current population dynamics and historical processes. Population genetic structure at the edge of the distribution is often expected to differ substantially from populations at the centre, as these edge populations are often small and fragmented. In addition, populations located in regions that have experienced repeated glaciations throughout the Pleistocene, may still carry imprints from the genetic consequences of frequent distribution shifts. Using chloroplast DNA sequences and nuclear microsatellite markers we studied the genetic structure of Epipactis atrorubens at the northern edge of its distribution. Contrary to populations in the centre of the distribution, populations at the northern range are regionally endangered as they are small and disjunct. Sequence data of 2 chloroplast loci and allelic data from 6 nuclear microsatellite markers were obtained from 297 samples from Finland, Estonia and Russia. We sought for genetic indicators of past population processes, such as post-glacial colonisation history of E. atrorubens. As expected, we observed low genetic variation, in terms of numbers of substitutions, haplotypes and alleles, and significant levels of differentiation, especially pronounced in the chloroplast DNA. These features suggest that the edge populations could be prone to extinction.
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