Orbit, orbital lifetime, and reentry survivability estimation for orbiting objects

Park, Seong-Hyeon; Kim, Hae-Dong; Park, Gisu

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2018.08.016

Cited by 15 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…The flight attitude, trajectory, and dropping zone of these spacecraft are all out of control, dictated by the perturbations of aerodynamics and earth gravity, and only accurate forecasts can significantly reduce the threat of disintegration parts falling on densely populated areas [7]. Although hypersonic aerodynamic heating destroys most parts of large-scale spacecraft [8], and the probability of the practical damage of debris on the ground is extremely low, the orbit decay prediction accuracy improvement of large-scale spacecraft in very low earth orbit (VLEO) is still theoretically and practically significant and beneficial for orbit determination as well as the collision warning of noncooperative targets in VLEO [9,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Orbit Decay for Large-Scale Spacecraft considering Rarefied Aerodynamic Perturbation Effects

Gao

Chen

et al. 2022

International Journal of Aerospace Engineering

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The growing risk of falling debris from outer space as well as the atmospheric interaction effect makes the orbit decay prediction of large spacecraft in very low earth orbit (VLEO) increasingly significant. Focusing on the aerodynamic perturbation effects under multiscale and nonequilibrium states on the orbit decay of the large spacecraft in VLEO at the end of its lifetime, we developed a novel perturbation prediction model covering the entire altitude range before reentry to perform long-term and short-term predictions of the large-scale spacecraft. A unified local rapid engineering algorithm for aerodynamic force and moment coefficients covering all flow regimes is proposed. The orbit perturbation models, combining the components of aerodynamics solved by the engineering algorithm, are built for the large-scale spacecraft. For altitudes ranging from 350 km to 250 km, which we defined as the slow descending stage (SDS), the two-line orbital elements (TLEs) and simplified general perturbation 4 (SGP4) model were used for long-term prediction, whereas for altitudes from 250 km to 120 km, which we defined as the rapid falling stage (RFS), Kepler two-body motion dynamics with acceleration perturbations were applied. All the relevant orbital elements were analytically solved and numerically simulated by the Runge–Kutta integration method. Thus, the decay orbit for large spacecraft from 350 km to 120 km altitudes can be evaluated by the platform we built. All the predicted results were broadly consistent with the measurement data. The findings in this paper can be further applied into the orbit determination of noncooperative spacecraft.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Orbit Decay for Large-Scale Spacecraft considering Rarefied Aerodynamic Perturbation Effects

Gao

Chen

et al. 2022

International Journal of Aerospace Engineering

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“…The huge amount of objects (up to millions) in LEO, MEO, GEO needs a careful control of their orbits and the analysis of their dynamical stability (Celletti and Galeş 2014;Celletti and Galeş 2018;Celletti et al 2020;Gkolias and Colombo 2019;Schettino et al 2019), also in view of devising appropriate mitigation measures (see, e.g., Jenkin et al 2019;Park et al 2018;Choi et al 2015). For objects in LEO, it is of crucial importance to evaluate the orbital lifetime, which is strongly affected by the atmospheric drag which provokes a decay of the orbits (King-Hele and Walker 1988; Krag et al 2013;Liu and Wang 2000;Shute and Chiville 1966;Westerman 1963).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Semi-Analytical Estimates for the Orbital Stability of Earth’s Satellites

2021

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Normal form stability estimates are a basic tool of Celestial Mechanics for characterizing the long-term stability of the orbits of natural and artificial bodies. Using high-order normal form constructions, we provide three different estimates for the orbital stability of point-mass satellites orbiting around the Earth. (i) We demonstrate the long-term stability of the semimajor axis within the framework of the $$J_2$$ J 2 problem, by a normal form construction eliminating the fast angle in the corresponding Hamiltonian and obtaining $${\mathcal {H}}_{J_2}$$ H J 2 . (ii) We demonstrate the stability of the eccentricity and inclination in a secular Hamiltonian model including lunisolar perturbations (the ‘geolunisolar’ Hamiltonian $${\mathcal {H}}_\mathrm{gls}$$ H gls ), after a suitable reduction of the Hamiltonian to the Laplace plane. (iii) We numerically examine the convexity and steepness properties of the integrable part of the secular Hamiltonian in both the $${\mathcal {H}}_{J_2}$$ H J 2 and $${\mathcal {H}}_\mathrm{gls}$$ H gls models, which reflect necessary conditions for the holding of Nekhoroshev’s theorem on the exponential stability of the orbits. We find that the $${\mathcal {H}}_{J_2}$$ H J 2 model is non-convex, but satisfies a ‘three-jet’ condition, while the $${\mathcal {H}}_\mathrm{gls}$$ H gls model restores quasi-convexity by adding lunisolar terms in the Hamiltonian’s integrable part.

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Reentry Risk and Safety Assessment of Spacecraft Debris Based on Machine Learning

Gao,

Li,

Dang

et al. 2023

Int. J. Aeronaut. Space Sci.

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Orbit, orbital lifetime, and reentry survivability estimation for orbiting objects

Cited by 15 publications

References 39 publications

Prediction of Orbit Decay for Large-Scale Spacecraft considering Rarefied Aerodynamic Perturbation Effects

Prediction of Orbit Decay for Large-Scale Spacecraft considering Rarefied Aerodynamic Perturbation Effects

Semi-Analytical Estimates for the Orbital Stability of Earth’s Satellites

Reentry Risk and Safety Assessment of Spacecraft Debris Based on Machine Learning

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