Options to achieve net-zero emissions from agriculture and land use changes in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

Eleven countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have pledged to reach net-zero emissions by around 2050. Changes in the food system are key to reach these carbon neutrality goals, as agriculture and resulting land-use changes are responsible for almost half of greenhouse gas emissions in the region. We quantify the effect of supply-side (e.g., yield improvements, silvopasture, agroforestry) and demand-side (e.g., reduction of waste and losses, changing diets) options to reduce emissions and transform the land use system in a net carbon sink by 2050 while improving nutrition for the growing population. We consider both direct agriculture emissions and the pressure that food production puts on land use changes, and track separately emissions that happen in the region and emissions linked to trade. Our findings confirm that cattle plays a preponderant role, emitting nearly 60% of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land-use change. Reaching a net-negative emissions food system able to balance emissions from the rest of the economy will require ambitious and sustained improvements in yields and changes in diets to moderate the increasing demand for beef, continuously decrease the share of land dedicated to agriculture, and increase instead land dedicated to carbon sequestration and biodiversity preservation.

Nature‐based solutions are critical for putting Brazil on track towards net‐zero emissions by 2050

“…Other modelling studies have also shown the fundamental role of protection and restoration as cost‐effective strategies to reduce emissions in Brazil (De Oliveira Silva et al., 2018; Dumas et al., 2022; Gurgel et al., 2019; Köberle et al., 2020; La Rovere et al., 2018; Rochedo et al., 2018; Roe et al., 2019, 2021; Schaeffer et al., 2020), reinforcing our conclusions. It is urgent to enforce Brazil’s Forest Code and go beyond it.…”

“…Previous research has projected low‐emissions trajectories for Brazil, but these prior studies vary considerably in their scope (De Oliveira Silva et al., 2018; Dumas et al., 2022; Gurgel et al., 2019; Köberle et al., 2020; La Rovere et al., 2018; Rochedo et al., 2018; Roe et al., 2019, 2021; Schaeffer et al., 2020). While some confine their focus to specific mitigation measures or limited sectors and biomes (De Oliveira Silva et al., 2018; Dumas et al., 2022), others do not comprehensively assess specificities of national policies such as the FC across the interconnected sectors of LULUCF, agriculture and energy (Gurgel et al., 2019; Köberle et al., 2020; La Rovere et al., 2018; Rochedo et al., 2018; Schaeffer et al., 2020).…”

“…Previous research has projected low‐emissions trajectories for Brazil, but these prior studies vary considerably in their scope (De Oliveira Silva et al., 2018; Dumas et al., 2022; Gurgel et al., 2019; Köberle et al., 2020; La Rovere et al., 2018; Rochedo et al., 2018; Roe et al., 2019, 2021; Schaeffer et al., 2020). While some confine their focus to specific mitigation measures or limited sectors and biomes (De Oliveira Silva et al., 2018; Dumas et al., 2022), others do not comprehensively assess specificities of national policies such as the FC across the interconnected sectors of LULUCF, agriculture and energy (Gurgel et al., 2019; Köberle et al., 2020; La Rovere et al., 2018; Rochedo et al., 2018; Schaeffer et al., 2020). Additionally, previous studies do not account for the substantial potential of NbS and engineered solutions in emissions reduction under detailed national policies (Roe et al., 2019, 2021), and do not distinguish between the impacts of illegal versus legal deforestation or solely rely on afforestation with non‐native monocultures in climate change mitigation scenarios.…”

Nature-Based Solutions Are Critical for Putting Brazil on Track Towards Net Zero

“…To this end, we combine two well-established and detailed models for the country (the regional economic partial equilibrium land use model GLOBIOM-Brazil [32,33], and the process-based, integrated assessment model BLUES [34]) to design locally meaningful policy scenarios (see Table 1 and Methods ) and project emissions from all sectors of the economy up to 2050. Other national-level modelling studies consider few dispositions of key national policies such as the Forest Code [35], specific sectors [36] or used global models and scenarios that are not validated against Brazilian official statistics for the historical period [4,37,38,39] (see Validation section in SI ).…”