Optimizing long-term water allocation in the Amudarya River delta: a water management model for ecological impact assessment

Schlüter, Maja; Savitsky, Andre; McKinney, Daene C.; Lieth, Helmut

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.03.005

Cited by 89 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The basin presents a unique case of transboundary water management, as before 1991 the area was part of the former Soviet Union and the majority of the river basin (except for Afghanistan) was managed by a single, central government under a common political system. At that time, the water use in the basin emphasized large-scale agricultural production (primarily cotton and wheat) and reservoirs were built in the upstream Tajikistan to provide water storage for the downstream irrigation demands see also [14,[16][17][18]. As such, the situation before 1991 thus resembled a kind of benefit-sharing scheme, where the Republics of the Soviet Union shared and optimized benefits from the river based on barter relations.…”

Section: Case Study Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sharing Benefits in Transboundary Rivers: An Experimental Case Study of Central Asian Water-Energy-Agriculture Nexus

Jalilov

Varis

Keskinen

2015

Water

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Cooperation in transboundary river basins is challenged by the riparian countries' differing needs for water use. This is the case especially in Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia, where upstream Tajikistan is building the Rogun Hydropower Plant (RHP) to increase its energy security, while the downstream countries oppose the plant due to the feared negative impacts to their irrigated agriculture. Several experimental scenarios illustrate how the concept of benefit sharing could be used as a framework to investigate these water-energy-agriculture linkages in a transboundary context. Using a hydro-economic model, we investigate the economic benefits of various scenarios emphasizing agricultural and/or energy production, thus benefiting the riparian countries uniquely. Subsequently, we discuss how benefit-sharing arrangements with different forms of compensations could be used as a mechanism to facilitate transboundary cooperation. Our results indicate that several scenarios have a potential to increase the total energy-agriculture benefits in the basin. Yet, agreeing on the actual benefit-sharing mechanism between the countries poses special challenges as each may require countries to give up some of their anticipated maximum potential benefits. The presented scenarios provide a potential starting point for debates over benefit-sharing arrangements across countries needing to address the water-energy-agriculture nexus.

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Section: Case Study Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sharing Benefits in Transboundary Rivers: An Experimental Case Study of Central Asian Water-Energy-Agriculture Nexus

Jalilov

Varis

Keskinen

2015

Water

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“…Moreover, the large number of factors makes modeling unnecessarily complex and unmanageable with conventional analytical tools. However, ease of use is a desired feature in modeling (Schlüter et al 2005). Worse, overly complex models may be outright misleading.…”

Section: Synthesis Of Success Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Artificial Neural Networks for the Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems

Frey¹,

Rusch²

2013

E&S

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ABSTRACT. The literature on common pool resource (CPR) governance lists numerous factors that influence whether a given CPR system achieves ecological long-term sustainability. Up to now there is no comprehensive model to integrate these factors or to explain success within or across cases and sectors. Difficulties include the absence of large-N studies, the incomparability of single case studies, and the interdependence of factors. We propose (1) a synthesis of 24 success factors based on the current social-ecological systems (SES) framework and a literature review and (2) the application of neural networks on a database of CPR management case studies in an attempt to test the viability of this synthesis. This method allows us to obtain an implicit quantitative and rather precise model of the interdependencies in CPR systems. Given such a model, every success factor in each case can be manipulated separately, yielding different predictions for success. This could become a fast and inexpensive way to analyze, predict, and optimize performance for communities worldwide facing CPR challenges. Existing theoretical frameworks could be improved as well.

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“…The consequences of drying lakes and rivers have extremely negative effects on the society, economic sector and hydro energy supply. The human-controlled hydrological regime of the major tributary rivers, Amu Daria and Syr Daria, flowing into Aral Sea, is a major factor affecting ecosystem sustainability, which are especially sensitive in the conditions of the semi-arid climate of Aral Sea Basin [17].…”

Section: B Environment Of Tian Shan: Current Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current Problems of Water Supply and Usage in Central Asia, Tian Shan Basin

Lemenkova¹

2013

"Environmental and Climate Technologies 2013" Conference Proceedings

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-The paper focuses on analysis of Central Asian hydroenergetic system and water usage in Tian Shan region. Tian Shan system is an important water resource in Central Asia: river waters are intensely taken for hydropower energy, urban systems, irrigation. But geopolitics in Tian Shan is difficult: it crosses five densely populated countries. The problem consists in water delivery between countries located in the highlands with excellent water supply (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and those located in valleys with water shortage (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan). The water use causes debates among these countries. Besides, global warming causes water deficit, which adds difficulties to hydroenergetics. A multidisciplinary analysis was performed in the article: water supply in Tian Shan, spatial distribution of hydroenergetic resources and effects of climate impact were analyzed.

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Optimizing long-term water allocation in the Amudarya River delta: a water management model for ecological impact assessment

Cited by 89 publications

References 7 publications

Sharing Benefits in Transboundary Rivers: An Experimental Case Study of Central Asian Water-Energy-Agriculture Nexus

Sharing Benefits in Transboundary Rivers: An Experimental Case Study of Central Asian Water-Energy-Agriculture Nexus

Using Artificial Neural Networks for the Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems

Current Problems of Water Supply and Usage in Central Asia, Tian Shan Basin

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