Optimizing Iran's natural gas export portfolio by presenting a conceptual framework for non-systematic risk based on portfolio theory

Nowrouzi, Ali; Panahi, Mostafa; Ghaffarzadeh, Hamidreza; Ataei, Abtin

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2019.100403

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 40 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Hence, by using the hourly data of heating energy demand and mentioned prices, the annual cost of natural gas consumption for each building is calculated. Moreover, the price of natural gas exports through LNG and pipeline is assumed to be 23 and 20 cents USD per cubic meter, respectively [55]. Considering that there is still no district heating system in Iran, the price of natural gas in the DHS-G scenario is set at 1000 IRR per cubic meter, based on the price of industrial application.…”

Section: Economic Aspectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic and Environmental Analysis of Incorporating Geothermal District Heating System Combined with Radiant Floor Heating for Building Heat Supply in Sarein, Iran Using Building Information Modeling (BIM)

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Despite the considerable breakthrough in district heating systems (DHS) globally, there is not yet any policy on developing this technology in Iran. This country has a high range of energy demand, while renewable energies play a minor role in its energy supply chain. Furthermore, the world is going through a transition towards renewable resources, which currently consist of only 10% of the total energy mix. As the first contribution in this area, this paper aims to design a 100% renewable DHS integrated with radiant floor heating for a group of residential buildings in Sarein, Iran. Moreover, the literature proposes a novel approach for combining geothermal energy and Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) to achieve a 100% renewable energy system. Building Information Modeling (BIM) is used for thermal analysis by 3D designing the buildings in SketchUp and OpenStudio and simulating the heat load in EnergyPlus. Three scenarios are presented to better compare the DHS with the decentralized heating system regarding fuel consumption, as well as environmental and economic aspects. The town’s existing heating system that consumes natural gas for both space heating and hot water demand is referred to as the IHS-G scenario. The DHS-G scenario represents an 87% renewable DHS system, working with natural gas and geothermal energy, while the DHS-MSW scenario is a 100% renewable system, consuming both geothermal energy and Municipal Solid Waste (MSW). Finally, findings suggest that DHS-MSW and DHS-G scenarios reduce the annual energy consumption of buildings by about 595 and 33 toes, respectively. Hence, the greenhouse gas effect will alleviate by mitigating the emission of 1403 and 1339 tons of CO2-eq./year, respectively. Moreover, exporting the extra natural gas through both LNG and pipeline provides about 26 million and 28 million USD/year revenue in DHS-G and DHS-MSW scenarios.

show abstract

Section: Economic Aspectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic and Environmental Analysis of Incorporating Geothermal District Heating System Combined with Radiant Floor Heating for Building Heat Supply in Sarein, Iran Using Building Information Modeling (BIM)

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Methodologically, these studies define risks as either the fluctuation in import costs [78][79][80] or the supplier's economic and political state [81,82]. The latter, index-based approach is also used in the rare exporter-focused study of Iranian gas exports [83]. Note that when the indices that characterize energy importers or exporters are used as a proxy for supply security or price risks, the method becomes susceptible to the drawbacks typical for energy security coefficients highlighted in the previous chapter.…”

Section: Portfolio Optimization In the Energy Domainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Security and Portfolio Diversification: Conventional and Novel Perspectives

Bollino

Galkin

2021

Energies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Despite the recent expansion of the scope, the main pillars of energy security remain physical supply and price components. This paper highlights the novel developments of this notion, including the exporters’ perspective, relevant challenges, indicators, and policies. Furthermore, we apply the portfolio theory approach to five Gulf Cooperation Council countries to construct portfolios representing the trade-offs between maximizing returns (oil export growth or export prices) and minimizing risks (standard deviation of return variables). We assess portfolios’ resilience to external demand and logistical shocks by running several disruptive scenarios. We find that oil exporters adopt a balanced approach to the risks associated with export volume growth and pricing, which is different from some major oil importers that prioritize either the physical supply or price stability. Simulation scenarios of increasing oil exports to China would have a significant impact mainly on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), but not on the others, while scenarios of reduced oil exports to the United States would impact mainly Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. A blockade of the Malacca Strait would reduce export volumes and increase portfolio risks for all five economies, with Kuwait and Oman most affected.

show abstract

China’s LNG import risk assessment based on the perspective of global governance

Zeng

Zhang

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The uncertainty of LNG import risks will have a significant impact on China's energy security. This paper establishes a multi-agent game model based on the current LNG transportation network and global LNG supply and demand pattern, evaluates the LNG import risks faced by China under the global governance model, and simulates and predicts the optimal LNG import strategy of China in 2030. The research results show that between 2007 and 2020, China’s LNG import risks increased rapidly compared with political risks and national risks. From the perspective of risk identification, the comprehensive risk of China's imports from Southeast Asia and Australia is lower. However, due to the increasing demand gap for LNG, the Middle East, and Africa are still necessary supply sources. It is estimated that by 2030, the future LNG market will be oversupplied, and the United States is expected to become the world's top LNG supplier. China will reduce its dependence on Africa and the Middle East, and import a large amount of natural gas from the United States, Australia, Qatar, and Russia to reduce supply risks. From the perspective of import market competition, the new analysis model proposed in this article provides an effective tool for exploring the optimal strategy for LNG import.

show abstract

Optimizing Iran's natural gas export portfolio by presenting a conceptual framework for non-systematic risk based on portfolio theory

Cited by 4 publications

References 40 publications

Economic and Environmental Analysis of Incorporating Geothermal District Heating System Combined with Radiant Floor Heating for Building Heat Supply in Sarein, Iran Using Building Information Modeling (BIM)

Economic and Environmental Analysis of Incorporating Geothermal District Heating System Combined with Radiant Floor Heating for Building Heat Supply in Sarein, Iran Using Building Information Modeling (BIM)

Energy Security and Portfolio Diversification: Conventional and Novel Perspectives

China’s LNG import risk assessment based on the perspective of global governance

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About