Optimised asset replacement strategy in the presence of lead time uncertainty

Richardson, Steven; Kefford, Adrian; Hodkiewicz, Melinda

doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2012.10.006

Cited by 31 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…4 In this paper, we consider alternative options that are renewed and repeated inde…nitely. In the asset replacement literature, Richardson et al (2013) model replacement as in…nitely repeated options complicated by lead time uncertainty, but not involving any choice between alternatives. Ye (1990) and Mauer and Ott (1995) analyze in…nitely repeated replacement options for alternative equipments whose productivity is constant over time but whose maintenance and operation cost follows a Brownian motion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry

Abdallah

Lasserre

2016

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

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CIRANO Le CIRANO est un organisme sans but lucratif constitué en vertu de la Loi des compagnies du Québec. Le financement de son infrastructure et de ses activités de recherche provient des cotisations de ses organisations-membres, d'une subvention d'infrastructure du ministère de l'Économie, de l'Innovation et des Exportations, de même que des subventions et mandats obtenus par ses équipes de recherche. CIRANO is a private non-profit organization incorporated under the Quebec Companies Act. Its infrastructure and research activities are funded through fees paid by member organizations, an infrastructure grant from the ministère de l'Économie, de l'Innovation et des Exportations, and grants and research mandates obtained by its research teams.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry

Abdallah

Lasserre

2016

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

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“…LCC minimisation keeps the cost of the function or activity throughout the life of the mine as low as possible. Whereas the cost of operations tends to remain more-or-less constant, maintenance costs are volatile, and increase with the age of the asset [2]. Thus maintenance costs are more important than operating costs in LCC analyses.…”

Section: Life-cycle Cost Minimisation To Determine the Optimum Replacmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Richardson et al [2] (echoed by Emblemsevåg [7]) found that, even today, most LCCs are deterministic and unable to accommodate uncertainty, which is a major limitation. Few sources in the literature have found practical applications for stochastic quantitative AB-LCC analyses, and they were not applied with great consistency.…”

Section: Life-cycle Cost Minimisation To Determine the Optimum Replacmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Modelling of Heavy Mobile Equipment to Determine Optimum Replacement Ages

Kirstein

Visser

2017

SAJIE

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Maintenance and physical asset managers often have to decide when a major asset needs to be replaced. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to determine the optimum replacement age of heavy mobile equipment that is close to the end of its life. The study was conducted on an old electric rope shovel used at a surface coal mining operation. The failure impact and failure probability estimates of components were obtained from subject matter experts through Delphi analyses. A stochastic-andparametric-estimation modelling solution was developed to perform quantitative risk analyses using their inputs. The solution calculated the expected loss of the rope shovel as a function of machine-age within a 90 per cent confidence interval. The study demonstrated that the optimum replacement age of heavy mobile equipment can be obtained by modelling the expected losses due to the failure of critical end-of-life components, taking into account the uncertainty in data obtained from subject matter experts. OPSOMMINGFisiese bate-en instandhoudingsbestuurders moet dikwels besluit wanneer om 'n groot bate te vervang. Die hoofdoel van hierdie studie was om 'n metodologie te ontwikkel om die optimale vervangtyd van swaar mobiele toerusting naby die einde van sy leeftyd te bepaal. Die studie was uitgevoer op 'n ou elektriese tougraaf wat by 'n oopgroef steenkool myn aangewend word. Die falings impak en falings waarskynlikhede van komponente is verkry vanaf onderwerpkenners deur middel van Delphi analises. 'n Stogastiese-en-parametriese-beraming modellering oplossing was ontwikkel om kwantitatiewe risiko analises met hul insette te doen. Die oplossing het die verwagte verliese van die tougraaf as 'n funksie van ouderdom bereken binne 'n 90 persent vertrouensinterval. Die studie het getoon dat die optimum vervangingsouderdom van swaar mobiele toerusting bepaal kan word deur die verwagte verliese as gevolg van falings van kritieke komponente naby die einde van hul leeftyd te modelleer, met inagname van die onsekerheid in data verkry vanaf onderwerpkenners.

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“…In addition, the impact of uncertainty on the replacement policy is of primary importance (Mercier, 2008, Nguyen et al, 2013, Richardson et al, 2013.We leave these issues for a future study.…”

Section: Summary and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%