Optimal trait scoring for age estimation

Abstract

The results from the analysis of the Todd pubic symphysis scores show that researchers should use goodness-of-fit tests for parametric models before deciding to collapse scores. Further, such goodness-of-fit tests are an essential tool in answering questions concerning the suitability of various parametric models. For the 15-stage scoring of the second mandibular molar, the log-normal model is appropriate for attainment ages.

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

“…Although Konigsberg et al. found that the second mandibular molar had a high probability value from the Lagrange multiplier test against log‐normal distributed ages of attainment, such was not true for the third molar. It is for this reason that we had to fit the more complicated unrestricted cumulative probit.…”

“…These values were obtained from probit regression in the R package “VGAM.” The estimated mean and standard deviation for age‐of‐attainment are 19.41 and 1.83 years, respectively. The probability value on a Lagrange multiplier test for normality of the attainment ages is p = 0.4342. This is a goodness‐of‐fit test indicating that there is a strong basis for arguing that the unobserved distribution of attainment ages is indeed normally distributed.…”

“…Figure shows the probit regression plotted on “probability paper” with the probabilities of root apex completion indicated at ages 15.82 ( p = 0.025), 19.41 ( p = 0.5), and 23.00 ( p = 0.975). Figure shows the regions of the normal distribution that correspond to these probabilities.…”

“…The parametric model used here to represent the dental evidence is probit regression. While the literature is divided in its use of probit (12,39,40) as versus logit (17,(41)(42)(43)(44)(45) regression for dental development, there is little practical difference between the two methods (46)(47)(48)(49)(50), and no evidence in the general statistics literature (51) that one is preferred over the other. Myers et al (52) have commented that "A probit model (as opposed to a logit model) is likely to be simpler for the reader to understand, since he or she is often more familiar with the normal distribution."…”

Timing of Development of the Permanent Mandibular Dentition: New Reference Values from the Fels Longitudinal Study

“…Konigsberg et al . () found that such a model often fits ordinal categorical data dependent on age. In particular, they found that this model fit well to cross‐sectional observations on dental formation following the Moorrees et al .…”