Optimal strategies for mitigating the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Philippines

Estadilla, Carlo Delfin S.; Reyes, Aurelio A. de los

doi:10.1002/mma.6979

Cited by 1 publication

(9 citation statements)

References 31 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…The proposed TB-HIV co-infection model was adapted from the TB dynamical model of Kim et al. ( 2018 ), HIV/AIDS model of Estadilla and de los Reyes ( 2020 ), and the co-infection model of Bhunu et al. ( 2009 ), incorporating classes of individuals unaware of their HIV infection.…”

Section: Tb-hiv Co-infection Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…HIV is transmitted by an infectious individual to a susceptible person at the rate of . If is the transmission rate of HIV infections, then the force of infection associated with HIV as in Estadilla and de los Reyes ( 2020 ) is defined by Parameters and account for differences in infectiousness of the compartments as infectiousness has a positive relationship with viral loads (Wilson et al. 2008 ).…”

Section: Tb-hiv Co-infection Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Individuals in the AIDS stage are more infectious compared to those who are in non-AIDS stage, which makes 1. Similar to Estadilla and de los Reyes ( 2020 ), we will assume that individuals unaware of their HIV infection are more infectious as they are more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors than those who are aware of their infection.…”

Section: Tb-hiv Co-infection Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…( 2018 ) Treatment success probability for active TB 0.8 – Kim et al. ( 2018 ) TB treatment rate for individuals with active TB 0.55 1/year World Health Organization ( 2018 ) HIV/AIDS-related parameters AIDS-related death rate 0.2 1/year Awoke and Semu ( 2018 ); Kumar and Jain ( 2018 ) HIV transmission rate 0.24825 1/year Estadilla and de los Reyes ( 2020 ) Natural rate of progression to AIDS 0.1 1/year Bhunu et al. ( 2009 ); Estadilla and de los Reyes ( 2020 ) Modification for transmission rate of PLHIV in AIDS stage 1.35 – Estadilla and de los Reyes ( 2020 ) Modification for transmission rate of PLHIV in treatment 0.04 – Estadilla and de los Reyes ( 2020 ) Modification for transmission rate of unaware PLHIV 1.250 – Estadilla and de los Reyes ( 2020 ) …”

Section: Tb-hiv Co-infection Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 2013 ; Dokubo et al. 2014 ; Estadilla and de los Reyes 2020 ). In 2020, about 16% of PLHIV were reported to be incognizant of their HIV status worldwide.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantitative Assessment of a Dual Epidemic Caused by Tuberculosis and HIV in the Philippines

2023

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Tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are the two major public health emergencies in the Philippines. The country is ranked fourth worldwide in TB incidence cases despite national efforts and initiatives to mitigate the disease. Concurrently, the Philippines has the fastest-growing HIV epidemic in Asia and the Pacific region. The TB-HIV dual epidemic forms a lethal combination enhancing each other’s progress, driving the deterioration of immune responses. In order to understand and describe the transmission dynamics and epidemiological patterns of the co-infection, a compartmental model for TB-HIV is developed. A class of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who did not know their HIV status is incorporated into the model. These unaware PLHIV who do not seek medical treatment are potential sources of new HIV infections that could significantly influence the disease transmission dynamics. Sensitivity analysis using the partial rank correlation coefficient is performed to assess model parameters that are influential to the output of interests. The model is calibrated using available Philippine data on TB, HIV, and TB-HIV. Parameters that are identified include TB and HIV transmission rates, progression rates from exposed to active TB, and from TB-latent with HIV to active infectious TB with HIV in the AIDS stage. Uncertainty analysis is performed to identify the degree of accuracy of the estimates. Simulations predict an alarming increase of 180% and 194% in new HIV and TB-HIV infections in 2025, respectively, relative to 2019 data. These projections underscore an ongoing health crisis in the Philippines that calls for a combined and collective effort by the government and the public to take action against the lethal combination of TB and HIV.

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Section: Tb-hiv Co-infection Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tb-hiv Co-infection Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tb-hiv Co-infection Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tb-hiv Co-infection Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 2013 ; Dokubo et al. 2014 ; Estadilla and de los Reyes 2020 ). In 2020, about 16% of PLHIV were reported to be incognizant of their HIV status worldwide.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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