Optimal policies for control of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak

Abstract

Understanding the early transmission dynamics of diseases and estimating the effectiveness of control policies play inevitable roles in the prevention of epidemic diseases. To this end, this paper is concerned with the design of optimal control strategies for the novel coronavirus disease . A mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission based on Wuhan's data is considered. To solve the problem effectively and efficiently, a multi-objective genetic algorithm is proposed to achieve high-quality schedules for various factors including contact rate and transition rate of symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined infected class. By changing these factors, two optimal policies are successfully designed. This study has two main scientific contributions that are: (1) This is pioneer research that proposes policies regarding COVID-19, (2) This is also the first research that addresses COVID-19 and considers its economic consequences through a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Numerical simulations conspicuously demonstrate that by applying the proposed optimal policies, governments could find useful and practical ways for control of the disease.

Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana

“…Thus, by developing a mathematical and optimal control model for human-environment-human transmission dynamics. Despite that other optimal control model on COVID-19 have been studied (see for example [27] , [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] , [32] ). But, to the best of our knowledge, there exists no compartmental model which focuses on environment to human dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana together with cost-effectiveness analysis.…”

On global dynamics of COVID-19 by using SQIR type model under non-linear saturated incidence rate

“…It has been stated (fact) that the origin of NCOVID-19 is the transmission from animal to human as many infected cases claimed that they had been to a local fish and wild animal market in Wuhan in November (we refer [2] , [3] , [4] , [5] , [6] , [7] , [28] ). Soon, some researchers confirmed that the transmission also happens person to person (see [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] ). In present situation this pandemic has been produced very harmful effect on the health, economics and social life of the whole globe.…”

Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread

“…In this context, mathematical models have played an important role in understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases and in designing health policy strategies [3] , [4] , [5] , [6] , [7] . In fact, these models have been used extensively to investigate different types of infection dynamics such as influenza A [8] , Zika [9] , Ebola [10] , SARS [11] , [12] , MERS [13] , [14] , and, more recently, COVID-19 [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] .…”