Optimal operation of hydrothermal systems with Hydrological Scenario Generation through Bootstrap and Periodic Autoregressive Models

Souza, Reinaldo Castro; Marcato, André L. M.; Dias, Bruno H.; Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2012.05.020

Cited by 26 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…For this purpose, it is crucial that all the required information for each wind farm be available. To create the wind generation data by submarket, it is first necessary to consider the starting date of operation in the wind power simulated in the previous step and then sum the wind farms corresponding to each submarket (G h,d,m,y,j,s ), as detailed in Equations (11) and 12:…”

Section: Net Demand Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nowadays, planning the BES operation basically involves evaluating the future conditions of energy supply from hydro and thermal sources over the planning horizon to minimize the expected value of the operation cost during the planning period [7][8][9]. This cost is formed by the fuel costs plus penalties for failure of load supply, under operational and security constraints [10][11][12]. The other generation sources, including wind power, are discounted from energy demand in a deterministic way.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning

et al. 2019

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In the past two decades, wind power’s share of the energy mix has grown significantly in Brazil. However, nowadays planning electricity operation in Brazil basically involves evaluating the future conditions of energy supply from hydro and thermal sources over the planning horizon. In this context, wind power sources are not stochastically treated. This work applies an innovative approach that incorporates wind power generation in the Brazilian hydro-thermal dispatch using the analytical method of Frequency & Duration. The proposed approach is applied to Brazil’s Northeast region, covering the planning period from July 2017 to December 2021, using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to simulate wind power scenarios. The obtained results are more conservative than the one currently used by the National Electric System Operator, since the proposed approach forecasts 1.8% less wind generation, especially during peak periods, and 0.67% more thermal generation. This conservatism can reduce the chance of water reservoir depletion and, also an ineffective dispatch.

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Section: Net Demand Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning

et al. 2019

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“…Only one model (MDDH) deals with stochasticity. The reasons being that the model deals with an electrical power system with strong hydro generation, thus requiring stochastic techniques to deal with the uncertainties in the water-streamflows [37], [46]. Most of the models are bottom-up, one is hybrid (i.e.…”

Section: A Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal trade-offs between energy efficiency improvements and additional renewable energy supply: A review of international experiences

Baldini

Jacobsen

2016

2016 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)

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Abstract-Energy is a commodity used worldwide, representing a vital input for social and economic development. Due to continuous growth, energy demand has increased. Solutions have been proposed in order to satisfy the increase in demand, often implying the increase of capacity of the power mix. Meanwhile, current issues concerning climate change and fossil fuels depletion has moved attention towards cleaner ways to produce energy. This trend facilitated the breakthrough of renewable technologies. Since then, support policies have promoted the large deployment of renewables, without considering enough the improvements made in the energy saving field. Indeed, little attention has been paid to implement energy efficiency measures, which has resulted in scenarios where expedients for a wise use of energy (e.g. energy savings and renewables share) are unbalanced. The aim of this paper is to review and evaluate international experiences on finding the optimal trade-off between efficiency improvements and additional renewable energy supply. A critical review of each technique, focusing on purposes, methodology and outcomes, is provided along with a review of tools adopted for the analyses. The models are categorized and presented according to their main characteristics (e.g. bottomup/top-down model, regional/national analysis, partial/general equilibrium, static/dynamic model). The results of this paper provide, to the decision-makers, informations useful to identify a suitable analysis for investigate on the optimal trade-off between renewables and energy efficiency measures in energy-systems under different objectives.

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“…Basicamente, esses trabalhos podem ser divididos em três grandes grupos: (a) trabalhos que discutem a metodologia; (b) trabalhos que utilizam o PAR(p) para comparar com um método "concorrente" e, (c) trabalhos que utilizam tal modelo como subsídio para discussões sobre o processo de otimização. Entre eles podem ser citados: ( (Souza, et al, 2012); (Oliveira & Souza, 2011) (Ferreira, et al, 2012); (Marien, 2001); (Maceira & Damázio, 2004) (Maceira, et al, 2005); (Pereira, 2011); (Campos, 2010); (Ballini, et al, 1997); (Lima & Lall, 2010); (Sarnaglia, et al, 2008); (Vieira, et al, 1998); (Penna, 2009); (Shapiro, et al, 2012)) (Quadro 3.1).…”

Section: Na Classe De Modelos Periódicos Destaque Para Os Modelos Paunclassified

A Estocasticidade Associada Ao Setor Elétrico Brasileiro E Uma Nova Abordagem Para a Geração De Afluências via Modelos Períódicos Gama

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Optimal operation of hydrothermal systems with Hydrological Scenario Generation through Bootstrap and Periodic Autoregressive Models

Cited by 26 publications

References 14 publications

Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning

Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning

Optimal trade-offs between energy efficiency improvements and additional renewable energy supply: A review of international experiences

A Estocasticidade Associada Ao Setor Elétrico Brasileiro E Uma Nova Abordagem Para a Geração De Afluências via Modelos Períódicos Gama

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