Optimal intervention strategies for multiple objects affected by manifest and latent deterioration processes

Abstract

In the existing infrastructure management systems, optimal interventions strategies (OISs) are determined for objects that deteriorate gradually (manifest deterioration process, MDPs), under the assumption that with appropriate inspection and intervention strategies the probability of failure of object can be neglected. Objects that deteriorate suddenly (latent deterioration process, LDPs), for example, due to scouring during a flood or earth movements during an earthquake are not considered. The determination of OISs for an object that deteriorates due to both MDPs and LDPs requires the consideration of both. The latter, however, means that the probability of failure of the object must be considered. In this article, a Markov model is presented that can be used to determine OISs for multiple objects of multiple types affected by uncorrelated MDPs and LDPs. The model is an extension of the model proposed by Mayet and Madanat (Incorporation of seismic considerations in bridge management systems. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 17:185 -193, 2002). In the model, a set of condition states (CSs) is used to describe the condition of objects of each type, where each set is composed of nonfailure CSs and failure CSs. The probabilities of going from each non-failure CS to each failure CS are estimated using normalised fragility curves, and the probabilities of going from each non-failure CS to each non-failure CS are initially estimated using the Markov deterioration prediction model of Kobayashi, Kaito, and Lethanh (A Bayesian estimation method to improve deterioration prediction for infrastructure system with Markov chain model. International Journal of Architecture, Engineering and Construction, 1:1 -13, 2012a) and later adjusted taking into consideration the probabilities of entering the failure CSs. The use of the model is demonstrated using a road link comprising one road section and one bridge.

A mathematical programming model to select maintenance strategies in railway networks

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A methodology of triage for bridges in depopulating society: modeling based on population and network connectivity

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