Optimal governance and implementation of vaccination programmes to contain the COVID-19 pandemic

Piraveenan, Mahendra; Sawleshwarkar, Shailendra; Walsh, Michael; Zablotska, Iryna; Bhattacharyya, S.K.; Farooqui, Habib Hasan; Bhatnagar, Tarun; Karan, Anup; Murhekar, Manoj; Zodpey, Sanjay; Rao, K. Srinivasa; Pattison, Philippa; Zomaya, Albert Y.; Perc, Matjaž

doi:10.1098/rsos.210429

Cited by 77 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…Since there are a high number of lower cost resources which need to cooperate for the best outcome, this scenario could be modelled as a multi-player co-operative game at one level, while the strife with the opponent(s) can be modelled as a multi-player non-cooperative game. It can be noted that the concept of ‘Mosaic warfare’ is essentially similar to the more general concept of agent-based modelling, which has already been used in several diverse contexts, ranging from Ageless Aerospace Vehicle design [ 119 ] to modelling of infectious disease dynamics [ 120 ], and game theory has already been used successfully in some of these contexts [ 120 , 121 ].…”

Section: Opportunities For Further Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Game Theory in Defence Applications: A Review

Rajagopalan

Skvortsov

et al. 2022

Sensors

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This paper presents a succinct review of attempts in the literature to use game theory to model decision-making scenarios relevant to defence applications. Game theory has been proven as a very effective tool in modelling the decision-making processes of intelligent agents, entities, and players. It has been used to model scenarios from diverse fields such as economics, evolutionary biology, and computer science. In defence applications, there is often a need to model and predict the actions of hostile actors, and players who try to evade or out-smart each other. Modelling how the actions of competitive players shape the decision making of each other is the forte of game theory. In past decades, there have been several studies that applied different branches of game theory to model a range of defence-related scenarios. This paper provides a structured review of such attempts, and classifies existing literature in terms of the kind of warfare modelled, the types of games used, and the players involved. After careful selection, a total of 29 directly relevant papers are discussed and classified. In terms of the warfares modelled, we recognise that most papers that apply game theory in defence settings are concerned with Command and Control Warfare, and can be further classified into papers dealing with (i) Resource Allocation Warfare (ii) Information Warfare (iii) Weapons Control Warfare, and (iv) Adversary Monitoring Warfare. We also observe that most of the reviewed papers are concerned with sensing, tracking, and large sensor networks, and the studied problems have parallels in sensor network analysis in the civilian domain. In terms of the games used, we classify the reviewed papers into papers that use non-cooperative or cooperative games, simultaneous or sequential games, discrete or continuous games, and non-zero-sum or zero-sum games. Similarly, papers are also classified into two-player, three-player or multi-player game based papers. We also explore the nature of players and the construction of payoff functions in each scenario. Finally, we also identify gaps in literature where game theory could be fruitfully applied in scenarios hitherto unexplored using game theory. The presented analysis provides a concise summary of the state-of-the-art with regards to the use of game theory in defence applications and highlights the benefits and limitations of game theory in the considered scenarios.

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Section: Opportunities For Further Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Game Theory in Defence Applications: A Review

Rajagopalan

Skvortsov

et al. 2022

Sensors

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“…Thus, the type of immunization achieved by vaccination needs to be evaluated, as well as the transmission rate, to assess the course of the different vaccination strategies, which requires monitoring and observation over time. Furthermore, whether the vaccination reduces the severe cases or transmission rates of the infection is critical in determining the optimal vaccination strategy [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the vaccine acceptance rate is much higher among high-risk groups such as the elderly and health-care workers. Moreover, compulsory vaccination might reduce the vaccine uptake, while other factors such as vaccination cost and vaccine efficacy might considerably influence the vaccine uptake rates [18]. In this context, epidemic modeling is essential to generate accurate estimates and develop optimized strategies taking into account the aforementioned conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Vaccination Simulator for COVID-19: Effective and Sterilizing Immunization Cases

Karabay

Kuzdeuov

Lewis

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Accurate modeling provides a means by which a complex problem can be examined for informed decision-making. We present a particle-based SEIR epidemic simulator as a tool to assess the impact of vaccination strategies on viral propagation and to model both sterilizing and effective immunization outcomes. The simulator includes modules to support contact tracing of the interactions amongst individuals as well as epidemiological testing of the general population. The simulator particles are distinguished by age, thus enabling a more accurate representation of the rates of infection and mortality in accordance with differential demographic susceptibilities and medical outcomes. The simulator can be calibrated by region of interest and variable vaccination strategies (i.e. random or prioritized by age) so as to enable locality-sensitive virus mitigation policy measures and resource allocation. The results described, based on the experience of the province of Lecco, Italy, indicate that the tool can be used to evaluate vaccination strategies in a way that incorporates local circumstances of viral propagation and demographic susceptibilities. Further, the simulator accounts for modeling the distinction between sterilizing immunization, in which immunized people are no longer contagious, and that of effective immunization, in which symptoms and mortality outcomes are diminished but individuals can still transmit the virus.

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“…Piraveenan et al emphasized that decision-making under uncertainty and imperfect information, and with only conditionally optimal outcomes, was a unique forte of established game-theoretic modeling. The game theory and social network models were used to study the vaccination uptake in their study, which became the key factor that would determine our success in containing COVID-19 (14).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to Reach a Regional Cooperation Mechanism to Deal With the Epidemic: An Analysis From the Game Theory Perspective

Yang

Yao

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

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The outbreak and persistence of COVID-19 have posed a great threat to global public health and economic development. The continuous economic deterioration has been intensified due to the continuous prevention and control measures, such as closed management. Insisting on the prevention of the epidemic or economic restart has become a dilemma for all countries. Epidemic prevention is not only the main behavior of a single country but also a common problem faced by all countries in the region. Continuous prevention measures will affect economic development, but an early restart of the economy is faced with the recurrence of the epidemic. To avoid the emergence of prisoner's dilemma in the governance of the epidemic, each country cannot make decisions with its optimization, and so it is necessary to build a regional cooperation mechanism to achieve the overall optimization of the economy and prevent the epidemic. Based on the game theory, we analyzed the behavior of countries when carrying out regional cooperation to govern the epidemic and put forward specific cooperative income distribution schemes according to the different attributes of the countries. Our results showed that in the presence of population mobility, regional cooperation to govern the epidemic can minimize the total number of infected people and maximize the overall utility of the region, which was significantly better than the overall benefits of the region in the case of non-cooperation. However, in detail, the smaller the difference of preference for preventing and controlling the epidemic between the two, the more likely it is to lead to a win-win situation. Otherwise, there will be one with damaged interests. When damaged interests appear, the appropriate distribution of cooperative income to the country with a small economic scale and low preference in preventing the epidemic is more conducive to the achievement of cooperative mechanisms and the realization of a win-win situation in the region.

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Optimal governance and implementation of vaccination programmes to contain the COVID-19 pandemic

Cited by 77 publications

References 71 publications

Game Theory in Defence Applications: A Review

Game Theory in Defence Applications: A Review

A Vaccination Simulator for COVID-19: Effective and Sterilizing Immunization Cases

How to Reach a Regional Cooperation Mechanism to Deal With the Epidemic: An Analysis From the Game Theory Perspective

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