Optimal control strategies on COVID-19 infection to bolster the efficacy of vaccination in India

Abstract

The Novel Coronavirus which emerged in India on January/30/2020 has become a catastrophe to the country on the basis of health and economy. Due to rapid variations in the transmission of COVID-19, an accurate prediction to determine the long term effects is infeasible. This paper has introduced a nonlinear mathematical model to interpret the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 infection along with providing vaccination in the precedence. To minimize the level of infection and treatment burden, the optimal control strategies are carried out by using the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. The data validation has been done by correlating the estimated number of infectives with the real data of India for the month of March/2021. Corresponding to the model, the basic reproduction number $${\mathcal {R}}_0$$ R 0 is introduced to understand the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. To justify the significance of parameters we determined the sensitivity analysis of $${\mathcal {R}}_0$$ R 0 using the parameters value. In the numerical simulations, we concluded that reducing $${\mathcal {R}}_0$$ R 0 below unity is not sufficient enough to eradicate the COVID-19 disease and thus, it is required to increase the vaccination rate and its efficacy by motivating individuals to take precautionary measures.

Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review

“…The primary mathematical model employed was the SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) compartmental model, utilized in 47% [ 193 ]) of the retrieved articles [ 17 , 19 , 24 – 28 , 31 – 36 , 42 , 45 , 46 , 57 , 60 , 65 , 67 , 69 , 71 , 73 , 77 , 80 , 87 , 89 , 91 , 92 , 94 , 96 – 100 , 103 – 107 , 109 , 111 – 113 , 115 , 118 , 122 – 128 , 130 , 131 , 133 , 135 , 138 – 146 , 148 – 150 , 156 , 157 , 159 – 165 , 167 , 168 , 174 – 177 , 179 , 180 , 183 , 185 , 187 , 188 , 192 , 199 , 210 , 212 , 215 , 218 – 220 , 223 – 227 , 233 –…”

“…Among the included articles, 40 (9.7%) incorporated information related to comorbidities [ 42 , 59 , 64 , 74 , 77 , 84 , 85 , 91 , 99 , 104 , 108 , 119 – 121 , 123 , 129 , 137 , 138 , 144 , 146 , 155 , 173 , 196 , 202 , 203 , 205 , 206 , 241 , 253 , 269 , 282 , 283 , 300 , 349 , 351 , 354 , 366 , 372 , 377 , 388 ]. Among these, 28 (6.8%) were within high-income countries.…”

Modeling and Optimal Control Analysis Applied to Real Cases of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination in Ethiopia

“…A lot of research work has been conducted on the transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus and different models are also presented. Additionally, a number of research works have been interested to identify the best vaccination strategy to control the transmission of coronavirus [8,9].…”

A systematic review and meta-analysis comparing the diagnostic accuracy tests of COVID-19

“…Generally, the clinical manifestations of COVID-19 are diverse, while the most prevalent symptoms are fever, cough, dyspnea, malaise, fatigue, neurological symptoms, dermatological manifestations, anorexia, myalgia, sneezing, sore throat, rhinitis, goosebumps, headache, chest pain, and diarrhea [12,13]. The symptoms that SARS-CoV-2 induces in several patients are mild, but may also be related to an accelerated onset of generalized infection in the lungs that is complicated by acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) [14,15], due to an unregulated inflammatory/immune system and cytokine storm [16]. In addition, a series of possible late complications due to COVID-19 infection has been pointed out, including venous thromboembolism, arterial thrombosis, pulmonary fibrosis, cardiac thrombosis and inflammation, cerebrovascular accident, mental fog, dermatological complications, and overall mood dysfunctions [17].…”

“…Control strategies against the spread of COVID-19 in many countries initially focused on complete or partial lockdowns. Still, these measures were not as effective due to the rapid increase in the number of hospitalized infected people [16]. Several vaccines have been licensed to reduce the incidence of hospitalization and death; despite this vaccination coverage remains insufficient [18,19], and many of them may not be effective against new virus variants [20].…”