Optimal allocation of reliability improvement target based on multiple correlation failures and risk uncertainty

Abstract

Optimal allocation of the reliability improvement target is essential for the system optimization design. In order to solve the problems that the optimization model is with loss of generality and the validity of the optimal solution is weakened, an optimal allocation method is proposed by considering multiple correlation failures and risk uncertainty in this paper. Two new concepts are presented, such as independent failure results in basic risk, and correlation failure leads to disturbance risk. A risk assessment machinery of “actual risk = basic risk + disturbance risk” is proposed. The action mechanisms of the three correlation failures are studied based on the cooperation game theory, and the generalized risk models are given under probability measure. Considering the improvement cost, the expectation and the variance of the reduction of system risk, a multi-objective optimal allocation model is developed, which is solved by using the PSO algorithm. Finally, the proposed optimal allocation is implemented at the 2-stage NGW planetary reducer, and the results show that it is more efficient and feasible for engineering practice.