Opposite Impacts of Interannual and Decadal Pacific Variability in the Extratropics

Seabrook, Melissa; Smith, Doug; Eade, Rosie; Hermanson, Leon; Scaife, Adam A.; Hardiman, Steven C.

doi:10.1029/2022gl101226

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 95 publications

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“…Here evidence of such feedback was shown to be particularly strong under the largest SAI scenario, that is, when the higher stratospheric aerosol levels drive larger chemical ozone losses that can then modulate the polar vortex dynamics. Finally, though not examined in detail in this study, changes in stratospheric water vapor have also been shown to drive changes in the high latitude circulation (Maycock et al, 2013;Seabrook et al, 2023), as well as enhance catalytic ozone loss (Tilmes et al, 2021), but uncertainties remain as to the details of such responses. Since SAI-induced lower stratospheric warming also drives significant increases in stratospheric water vapor, this process constitutes an additional source of uncertainty to the overall SAI impacts in the high latitudes.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Potential Non‐Linearities in the High Latitude Circulation and Ozone Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

Bednarz,

Visioni,

Butler

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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The impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) on the atmosphere and surface climate depend on when and where the sulfate aerosol precursors are injected, as well as on how much surface cooling is to be achieved. We use a set of CESM2(WACCM6) SAI simulations achieving three different levels of global mean surface cooling and demonstrate that unlike some direct surface climate impacts driven by the reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols, the SAI‐induced changes in the high latitude circulation and ozone are more complex and could be non‐linear. This manifests in our simulations by disproportionally larger Antarctic springtime ozone loss, significantly larger intra‐ensemble spread of the Arctic stratospheric jet and ozone responses, and non‐linear impacts on the extratropical modes of surface climate variability under the strongest‐cooling SAI scenario compared to the weakest one. These potential non‐linearities may add to uncertainties in projections of regional surface impacts under SAI.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Potential Non‐Linearities in the High Latitude Circulation and Ozone Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

Bednarz,

Visioni,

Butler

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…We expect to see some agreement because the ENSO SST pattern projects heavily onto the PDO SST pattern (the key difference being the relative strength of the North and tropical Pacific anomalies). On the other hand, there is evidence that the interaction between Pacific SST variability and the extratropics can be dependent on time scale (Seabrook et al, 2023). If the decadal variability discussed in Section 4.1 is an aliasing of the interannual ENSO variability, similar changes to the MJO response between El Niño and La Niña as between period one and two might be expected.…”

Section: Interannual Changes Associated With Ensomentioning

confidence: 98%

Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Skinner

Matthews

Stevens

2023

Preprint

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The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a key source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnection patterns. These MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data is used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the northern hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Comparisons are made with ENSO-modulated interannual variability, showing considerable differences to the observed decadal scale variability. Changes are seen in both the circulation response and consequently in temperature and precipitation. In particular, from 1997 cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States, due to MJO convection over the western Pacific, which were not present 20 years previously.

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“…We expect to see some agreement because the ENSO SST pattern projects heavily onto the PDO SST pattern (the key difference being the relative strength of the North and tropical Pacific anomalies). On the other hand, there is evidence that the interaction between Pacific SST variability and the extratropics can be dependent on time scale (Seabrook et al., 2023). If the decadal variability discussed in Section 4.1 is an aliasing of the interannual ENSO variability, similar changes to the MJO response between El Niño and La Niña as between period one and two might be expected.…”

Section: Changes In the Upper Tropospheric Response To The Mjomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, there is little understanding of the variability of MJO teleconnections on decadal time scales. Furthermore, the extratropics have been shown to respond differently to remote forcing on interannual and decadal time scales (Seabrook et al., 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal Variability of the Extratropical Response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Skinner,

Matthews,

Stevens

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub‐seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnections. MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal to interannual time scales. However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Changes are seen in the circulation, temperature and precipitation responses. In particular, from 1997, intraseasonal cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States due to MJO convection over the western Pacific; these were not present 20 years previously. The decadal variability observed is not the product of aliasing of ENSO modulation of the teleconnection.

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Opposite Impacts of Interannual and Decadal Pacific Variability in the Extratropics

Cited by 5 publications

References 95 publications

Potential Non‐Linearities in the High Latitude Circulation and Ozone Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

Potential Non‐Linearities in the High Latitude Circulation and Ozone Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Decadal Variability of the Extratropical Response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

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