Operative forecast of hydrophysical fields in the Georgian Black Sea coastal zone within the ECOOP

Abstract

One of the part of the Black Sea Nowcasting/Forecasting System is the regional forecasting system for the Easternmost part of the Black Sea (including the Georgian water area), which have been developed within the context of the EU International projects ARENA and ECOOP. A core of the regional system is a high-resolution baroclinic regional model of the Black Sea dynamics developed at M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics (RM-IG). This model is nested in the basin-scale model (BSM) of Marine Hydrophysical Institute (MHI, Sevastopol/Ukraine). The regional area is limited to the Caucasian and Turkish coastal lines and the western liquid boundary coinciding with a meridian 39.36° E. Since June 2010 we regularly compute 3 days' forecasts of current, temperature and salinity for the Easternmost part of the Black Sea with 1 km spacing. In this study results of two forecasts are presented. The first forecast corresponds to Summer season and covers the prognostic interval from 00:00 h, 6 August to 00:00 h, 9 August 2010. The second one corresponds to Autumn season and covers the prognostic interval from 00:00 h, 26 October to 00:00 h, 29 October 2010. Data needed for the forecasts – the 3-D initial and prognostic hydrophysical fields, also 2-D prognostic meteorological fields at the sea surface, wind stress, heat fluxes, evaporation and precipitation rates for the our regional area are placing on the MHI server every day and we are available to use these data operatively. Prognostic hydrophysical fields are results of forecast by BSM of MHI and 2-D meteorological boundary fields represent results of forecast by regional atmospheric model ALADIN. All these fields are given on the grid of BSM with 5 km spacing and with one-hour time step frequency for the integration period. The analysis of predicted fields shows that to use the model with high resolution is very important factor for identification of nearshore eddies of small sizes. It should be noted very different character of regional circulation in summer and autumn seasons in the Easternmost part of the Black Sea

Modeling Black Sea circulation with high resolution in the coastal zone

“…Here, x and y are the model longitude and latitude, respectively; are the metric coefficients depend ing on the location of the poles on the sphere (8) where l is the Coriolis parameter, is the velocity of the Earth's rotation, and ϕ is the geographical latitude.…”

“…The width of the current is approximately 40-50 km, the velocities range from 40-50 cm/s to 80-100 cm/s, and the transport is 3-4 Sv [2]. Several modern models have been developed for modeling and forecasting the Black Sea circulation [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13].…”

Numerical Modeling of Marine Circulation, Pollution Assessment and Optimal Ship Routes

“…The development of numerical models, increasing their adequacy and accuracy, is also associated with an increase in spatial resolution. Reproduction and analysis of marine processes stimulate the construction of effective methods for calculating the dynamics of coastal currents in a wide range of spatio-temporal variability [2,3,[7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21].…”