Operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction—an empirical technique

Bhowmik, S. K. Roy; Kotal, S. D.; Kalsi, S. R.

doi:10.1007/s11069-006-9053-6

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Here we choose exponential fitting, although some other, like second order potential fitting, would also do it well. The relationship that intensity of TC increases exponentially is in good agreement with the findings of Bhowmik et al (2006) and also Kaplan and DeMaria (1995;2001).…”

Section: Choice Of Equationsupporting

confidence: 89%

Tropical cyclone intensity prediction over the North Indian Ocean - An NWP based objective approach

et al. 2019

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A Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) based objective intensity prediction approach has been explored for prediction of tropical cyclone intensity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) using ECMWF model outputs. The intensity of a tropical cyclone is classified by the maximum sustained wind (10-min mean) according to World Meteorological Organization (WMO). An empirical relationship between the difference of the model's maximum mean sea level pressure (MSLP) inside a 6° × 6° grid box around the centre of the system and the lowest mean sea level pressure at the centre of the system (ΔP) with the observed intensity is developed using over 100 analyses during 2010-2012. The same is used to predict intensity of very severe cyclonic storm Hudhud and a Deep Depression observed over the Bay of Bengal during 2014. The results show that the empirical equation is skillful in prediction of intensity as compared to predictions computed using the relationship V max = K DP with different constant values of K. The error analyses show that the relative error in intensity prediction using the empirical equation derived in the present study is 34% less than the same using K = 14.2 kt / hPa in V max = K DP with an improvement which is significant at the level of 0.95.

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Section: Choice Of Equationsupporting

confidence: 89%

Tropical cyclone intensity prediction over the North Indian Ocean - An NWP based objective approach

et al. 2019

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“…The updated empirical approach has been employed here. The empirical method developed by Roy Bhowmik et al (2007) examined the feasibility of generating six or twelve hourly GTS intensity estimates with a validity of up to 48-72 hours for the 32 cyclones. Table 2 shows the skill score calculated using this formula.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Table 4 demonstrates that forecasts up to 72 hours typically show high agreement between projected and observed values. In developing the skill score (Table 5), Roy Bhowmik et al (2007) considered only the first interval. Therefore, the error rate is high.…”

Section: Algorithm For Updated Empirical Intensity Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction in the bay of bengal - An updated empirical technique

Kumar,

Venkataraman,

Meganathan

et al. 2023

Multidiscip. Sci. J.

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Given its role in preventing cyclone-related property damage and fatalities, effective weather forecasting is of utmost importance. Numerous methods for forecasting the weather have been developed via extensive research. To improve precise and trustworthy weather forecast techniques, however, there is a constant need. This study suggests an improved empirical methodology for forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, particularly in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region. The study is based on an analysis of 32 cyclones that occurred between 2003 and 2019. The model predicts that TC has significantly strengthened. This article's methodology has the potential to raise forecast precision at 12-hour intervals. However, the forecast's precision decreases over time.

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“…Fitzpatrick (1997) developed Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for understanding and forecasting TC intensity. Roy Bhowmik et al (2007) proposed an empirical model for predicting intensity of TCs over Bay of Bengal based on observed intensity data. Kotal et al (2008) developed a SCIP model for the prediction of TC intensity over Bay of Bengal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin by NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) of IMD – an evaluation

et al. 2014

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An objective NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) was implemented for the operational cyclone forecasting work over the Indian seas. The method comprises of five forecast components, namely (a) Cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP), (b) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique for cyclone track prediction, (c) cyclone intensity prediction, (d) rapid intensification, and (e) predicting decaying intensity after the landfall. GPP is derived based on dynamical and thermodynamical parameters from the model output of IMD operational Global Forecast System. The MME technique for the cyclone track prediction is based on multiple linear regression technique. The predictor selected for the MME are forecast latitude and longitude positions of cyclone at 12-hr intervals up to 120 hours forecasts from five NWP models namely, IMD-GFS, IMD-WRF, NCEP-GFS, UKMO, and JMA. A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for predicting 12 hourly cyclone intensity (up to 72 hours) is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. Various dynamical and thermodynamical parameters as predictors are derived from the model outputs of IMD operational Global Forecast System and these parameters are also used for the prediction of rapid intensification. For forecast of inland wind after the landfall of a cyclone, an empirical technique is developed. This paper briefly describes the forecast system CPS and evaluates the performance skill for two recent cyclones Viyaru (non-intensifying) and Phailin (rapid intensifying), converse in nature in terms of track and intensity formed over Bay of Bengal in 2013. The evaluation of performance shows that the GPP analysis at early stages of development of a low pressure system indicated the potential of the system for further intensification. The 12-hourly track forecast by MME, intensity forecast by SCIP model, and rapid intensification forecasts are found to be consistent and very useful to the operational forecasters. The error statistics of the decay model shows that the model was able to predict the decaying intensity after landfall with reasonable accuracy. The performance statistics demonstrates the potential of the system for improving operational cyclone forecast service over the Indian seas.

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Operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction—an empirical technique

Cited by 15 publications

References 7 publications

Tropical cyclone intensity prediction over the North Indian Ocean - An NWP based objective approach

Tropical cyclone intensity prediction over the North Indian Ocean - An NWP based objective approach

Operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction in the bay of bengal - An updated empirical technique

Forecasting of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin by NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) of IMD – an evaluation

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