Operational Perspective of Lessons Learned From the Ebola Crisis

Abstract

Given its potential to quickly spread internationally and initially uncontrollable nature, the 2014 to 2015 Ebola outbreak has implications for global biosecurity. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Technical Reachback provided near real-time analysis and recommendations as outbreak-relevant events unfolded. Our review of often-conflicting or incomplete information was required to answer policy decision makers about the expanding Ebola epidemic, and enable the formulation of best-possible U.S. Department of Defense and Government response. Challenging questions often did not have obvious information available from which to provide a definitive answer. Nevertheless, through use of best-practice science and medicine, we provided timely and scientifically accurate weekly review for decision makers. Our comprehensive analyses included the nature of the outbreak, its global and national impact, contributing factors to this and future Ebola outbreaks, the U.S. Government and international response, and continuing interventions. We also provided guidance for Ebola transmission outside of West Africa, medical countermeasures, challenges with the international response, lessons learned, major constraints, and considerations for future preparedness. We believe an assessment of these events may help an improved response for future infectious disease outbreaks with global and national security implications.

The Impact of Social Support on Public Anxiety amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic in China

“…The 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak caused varying degrees of psychological trauma and severely affected quality of life [13][14][15]. The explosion of Ebola in West Africa in 2014 took a heavy toll on people and had a debilitating impact on public psychology [16,17]. Not only do people who experience traumatic events develop psychological symptoms, but also those who have been exposed to or associated with trauma experience varying degrees of psychological trauma, including post-traumatic stress disorder, melancholia, and depression [18][19][20].…”

Best practice assessment of disease modelling for infectious disease outbreaks

“…One solution was the inclusion of stochastic agent-based modelling, incorporating behavioural, demographic and movement interactions in a synthetic population with notional households, distributed according to census data. This was used by US government modellers to provide assessments to policy makers and others [33]. Once initiated and sustained, behavioural change significantly impacted disease spread [94].…”

“…Modelling aided the public health response by analysing potential disease spread and directing interventions. Introduction of burial practices and climatology into agent-based SEIR modelling assisted placement of Ebola treatment centres [33]. Optimal modelling occurred with behavioural factor inclusion [31].…”

Operational Considerations in Global Health Modeling

“…DTRA actively participated in interagency modeling development through participation in working groups with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In partnership with the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, DTRA employed the Comprehensive National Incident Modeling System program (CNIMS) [7]. CNIMS utilizes an agent-based model and realistic network simulations to predict possible disease spread that could affect U.S. military and civilian populations, both domestic and abroad.…”