Operational earthquake forecasting in Europe: progress, despite challenges

Zechar, J. D.; Marzocchi, Warner; Wiemer, Stefan

doi:10.1007/s10518-016-9930-7

Cited by 23 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Since then the ISC-GEM Catalogue has been used by many researchers investigating seismicity rates, patterns of seismicity and earthquake forecast (e.g. Cambiotti et al, 2016;Geist, 2014;Ikuta et al, 2015;Kagan, 2017;Kagan and Jackson, 2016;Katsumata, 2015;Pollitz et al, 2014;Quinteros Cartaya et al, 2016;Roth et al, 2017;Zaliapin and Kreemer, 2017;Zechar et al, 2016;Zhan and Shearer, 2015) as well as by groups working on earthquake catalogues for seismic hazard purposes (e.g. Alvarez et al, 2016;Deif et al, 2017;Ghasemi et al, 2016;Kadirioglu et al, 2016;Markušić et al, 2015;Mikhailova et al, 2015;Poggi et al, 2017;Weatherill et al, 2016) and other seismological studies (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalogue (1904–2014): status after the Extension Project

Giacomo¹,

Engdahl

Storchak³

2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

143

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Abstract. We outline the work done to extend and improve the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue, a dataset which was first released in 2013 (Storchak et al., 2013, 2015). In its first version (V1) the catalogue included global earthquakes selected according to time-dependent cut-off magnitudes: 7.5 and above between 1900 and 1918 (plus significant continental earthquakes 6.5 and above); 6.25 between 1918 and 1959; 5.5 between 1960 and 2009. Such selection criteria were dictated by time and resource limitations. With the Extension Project we added both pre-1960 events below the original cut-off magnitudes (if enough station data were available to perform relocation and magnitude recomputation) and added events with magnitude 5.5 and above from 2010 to 2014. The project ran over a 4-year period during which a new version of the ISC-GEM Catalogue was released each year via the ISC website (http://http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/, last access: 10 October 2018). For each year, not only have we added new events to the catalogue for a given time range but also revised events already in V1 if additional data became available or location and/or magnitude reassessments were required. Here we recall the general background behind the production of the ISC-GEM Catalogue and describe the features of the different periods in which the catalogue has been extended. Compared to the 2013 release, we eliminated earthquakes during the first 4 years (1900–1903) of the catalogue (due to lack of reliable station data), added approximately 12 000 and 2500 earthquakes before 1960 and between 2010 and 2014, respectively, and improved the solution for approximately 2000 earthquakes already listed in previous versions. We expect the ISC-GEM Catalogue to continue to be one of the most useful datasets for studies of the Earth's global seismicity and an important benchmark for seismic hazard analyses, and, ultimately, an asset for the seismological community as well as other geoscience fields, education and outreach activities. The ISC-GEM Catalogue is freely available at https://doi.org/10.31905/D808B825.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalogue (1904–2014): status after the Extension Project

Giacomo¹,

Engdahl

Storchak³

2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

143

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“…In the case of a complex OEF system comprising a large monitoring area with different geological structures (e.g., Europe), the recommended solution is to decentralize the decision by applying the procedure described to independent zones that transmit alerts to a general information portal. In this context, the answer to the question J. Zechar wrote in his article [58], "Is Europe-wide operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) possible? ", is affirmative.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring of Gas Emissions in Light of an OEF Application

et al. 2020

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This study analyzes the possibility to use geophysical and geochemical parameters in an OEF (Operational Earthquake Forecasting) application correlated with short-term changes in seismicity rates using a magnitude–frequency relationship. Tectonic stress over the limits of rock elasticity generates earthquakes, but it is possible that the emission of gases increases as a result of the breaking process. The question is how reliable is the emission of radon-222 and Carbon Dioxide (CO2), with effects on air ionization and aerosol concentration, in an OEF application? The first step is to select the seismic area (in our study this is the Vrancea area characterized by deep earthquakes at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains), then determine the daily and seasonal evolution of the forecast parameters, their deviations from the normal level, the short-term changes in seismicity rates using a magnitude–frequency relationship and finally to correlate the data with recorded seismic events. The results of anomaly detection, effect evaluation and data analysis alert the beneficiaries specialized in emergency situations (Inspectorate for Emergency Situations, organizations involved in managing special events). Standard methods such as the standard deviation from the mean value, time gradient, cross correlation, and linear regression are customized for the geological specificity of the area under investigation. For detection we use the short-time-average through long-time-average trigger (STA/LTA) method on time-integral data and the daily–seasonal variation of parameters is correlated with atmospheric conditions to avoid false decisions. The probability and epistemic uncertainty of the gas emissions resulting from this study, in addition to other precursor factors such as air ionization, time between earthquakes, temperature in the borehole, telluric currents, and Gutenberg Richter “a-b” parameters, act as inputs into a logical decision tree, indicating the possibility of implementing an OEF application for the Vrancea area. This study is novel in its analysis of the Vrancea area and performs a seismic forecasting procedure in a new form compared to the known ones.

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“…Following a large earthquake and in the presence of a vast number of aftershocks, short-term operational seismicity forecasts (in the order of days to months) are of utmost importance for emergency decision-making and risk mitigation in the disaster area 1 – 6 . The aftershock activity is forecasted mainly based on the observed data of already registered (and mostly incomplete) recordings within the ongoing sequence 7 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models

Ebrahimian

Jalayer

2017

Sci Rep

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In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories in terms of seismicity forecasts play quite a crucial role in emergency decision-making and risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term. We propose robust forecasting of seismicity based on ETAS model, by exploiting the link between Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers the uncertainty not only in the model parameters, conditioned on the available catalogue of events occurred before the forecasting interval, but also the uncertainty in the sequence of events that are going to happen during the forecasting interval. We demonstrate the methodology by retrospective early forecasting of seismicity associated with the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence activities in central Italy. We provide robust spatio-temporal short-term seismicity forecasts with various time intervals in the first few days elapsed after each of the three main events within the sequence, which can predict the seismicity within plus/minus two standard deviations from the mean estimate within the few hours elapsed after the main event.

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Operational earthquake forecasting in Europe: progress, despite challenges

Cited by 23 publications

References 46 publications

The ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalogue (1904–2014): status after the Extension Project

The ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalogue (1904–2014): status after the Extension Project

Monitoring of Gas Emissions in Light of an OEF Application

Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models

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