Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds

Kloenne, Uta; Nauels, Alexander; Pearson, Pam; DeConto, Robert M.; Findlay, Helen S.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Robinson, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Stroeve, Julienne; Schleußner, Carl-Friedrich

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01566-4

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…In many regions, changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation events that are driven by the increase in global mean temperatures are expected to be continued in the period after peak warming, when global mean temperatures are already decreasing. In combination with global or regional tipping points [57,58] and the uncertainties related to the effectiveness of methods to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere, our analysis provides further evidence that additional risks may be inferred by overshoots.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Pfleiderer,

Schleussner,

Sillmann

2024

Environ. Res.: Climate

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Without stringent reductions in emission of greenhouse gases in the coming years, an exceedance of the 1.5C temperature limit is increasingly likely. This has given rise to so-called temperature overshoot scenarios, in which the global mean surface air temperature exceeds a certain limit (i.e. 1.5C above pre- industrial levels) before bringing temperatures back below that limit. Despite their prominence in the climate mitigation literature, the implications of an overshoot for local climate impacts is still understudied. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of implications of an overshoot for regional temperature and precipitation changes as well as climate extremes indices. Based on a multi-model comparison from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) we find that temperature changes are largely reversible in many regions, but also report significant land-ocean and latitudinal differences after an overshoot. For precipitation, the emerging picture is less clear. In many regions the drying or wetting trend is continued throughout the overshoot irrespective of a change in the global mean temperature trend with resulting consequences for extreme precipitation. Taken together, our results indicate that even under a reversal of global mean temperature increase, regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades after peak warming. We thus provide further evidence that overshooting of a warming level implies considerable risks on the regional level.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Pfleiderer,

Schleussner,

Sillmann

2024

Environ. Res.: Climate

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“…The same could apply for temperature changes in hotspot regions and other seasonal impacts. In combination with global or regional tipping points [34,35] and the uncertainties related to the effectiveness of methods to reduce CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere our analysis adds to the reasons that irreversible risks may be inferred by overshoots.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

No going back - Limited reversibility of regional climate changes under overshoot

Pfleiderer

Schleußner

Sillmann

2023

Preprint

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Without stringent reductions in emission of greenhouse gases in the coming years, an exceedance of the 1.5C temperature limit would become increasingly likely. This has given rise to so-called temperature overshoot scenarios, in which the global mean surface air temperature increase above pre-industrial levels exceeds a certain limit, i.e. 1.5C, before bringing temperatures back below that level. Despite their prominence in the climate mitigation literature, the implications of an overshoot for local climate impacts is still understudied. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of implications of an overshoot for regional temperature and precipitation changes as well as climate extremes indices. Based on a multi-model comparison from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) we find that temperature changes are largely reversible in most regions, but also report significant land-ocean and latitudinal differences after an overshoot. For precipitation, the emergent picture is less clear. For regions where significant changes in precipitation can be identified, a reversibility of those changes is the exception, with most regions experiencing increased drying or wetting after an overshoot. This effect is even more pronounced for extreme precipitation. Taken together, our results indicate that even under a reversal of global mean temperature increase, regional climate changes may only be partially reversible, if at all. We thus provide further evidence that overshooting of a warming level implies irreversible changes.

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“…On land, a 1.5°C+ future would cause substantial weakening of the terrestrial carbon sink, disruption of the water cycle, and large-scale destabilization of food and water systems (Abbott et al, 2019(Abbott et al, , 2022Calzadilla et al, 2013;Duffy et al, 2021;Fernández-Martínez et al, 2023;Schleussner et al, 2018). These changes would directly and indirectly threaten human society and biosphere integrity by eroding the stabilizing feedbacks in the Earth system that currently insulate us from the most costly and dangerous consequences of human climate disruption (Bradshaw et al, 2021;Díaz et al, 2019;Kloenne et al, 2023).…”

Section: The Problems With 15°cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene

Abbott,

Abrahamian,

Newbold

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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The UN's Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming between 1.5 and 2°C is dangerously obsolete and needs to be replaced by a commitment to restore Earth's climate. We now know that continued use of fossil fuels associated with 1.5–2°C scenarios would result in hundreds of millions of pollution deaths and likely trigger multiple tipping elements in the Earth system. Unexpected advances in renewable power production and storage have radically expanded our climate response capacity. The cost of renewable technologies has plummeted at least 30‐year faster than projected, and renewables now dominate energy investment and growth. This renewable revolution creates an opportunity and responsibility to raise our climate ambitions. Rather than aiming for climate mitigation—making things less bad—we should commit to climate restoration—a rapid return to Holocene‐like climate conditions where we know humanity and life on Earth can thrive. Based on observed and projected energy system trends, we estimate that the global economy could reach zero emissions by 2040 and potentially return atmospheric CO2 to pre‐industrial levels by 2100–2150. However, this would require an intense and sustained rollout of renewable energy and negative emissions technologies on very large scales. We describe these clean electrification scenarios and outline technical and socioeconomic strategies that would increase the likelihood of restoring a Holocene‐like climate in the next 100 years. We invite researchers, policymakers, regulators, educators, and citizens in all countries to share and promote this positive message of climate restoration for human wellbeing and planetary stability.

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Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds

Cited by 9 publications

References 14 publications

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

No going back - Limited reversibility of regional climate changes under overshoot

Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene

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