Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau—Insights from system dynamics

Cai, Zhiming; Clarke, Richard H.; Glowacki, B.A.; Nuttall, William J.; Ward, Nicholas J.

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2009.10.002

Cited by 47 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Although helium production is not controlled by a cartel, the firms producing this exhaustible resource could still be considered an effective oligopoly (Cai et al 2010). Generally, more than five producers have been deemed necessary for the market structure not to be considered an oligopoly .…”

Section: Imperfect Competitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, Uri (1987) estimated the long-run elasticity of demand for helium to only increase to 0.63 (in absolute value) compared with a short-run elasticity estimate of 0.5. Cai et al (2010) used the methodology of industrial or systems dynamics (Forrester 1951;Sterman 2000) to describe the dynamics of the helium market and potential responses to changes in policies. In their analysis of an integrated system that included a production model, an investment model, a market model, a demand model, and other submodels, the authors tried to account for many factors that could be important to the evolution of helium markets, including the effects of changes in the production of conventional natural gas, the development of helium-intensive technologies, and the rates of helium being vented during natural gas processing and combustion on the rate of depletion of helium resources.…”

Section: Empirical Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their analysis suggested that helium production could accommodate increasing consumption until about 2030, plateau until depletion of helium resources forces a gradual reduction in production (possibly not until after 2060, depending on the amount of venting), and decrease more or less steadily until natural gas fields with extremely low He content and the atmosphere become the primary sources of helium by about 2100. Nuttall et al (2012) suggested modifications to the demand submodel of Cai et al (2010) to better tie aggregate demand to the behaviors of individual agents.…”

Section: Empirical Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nuttall et al (2012) suggest that a systems dynamics approach is well suited to consider market structures like oligopoly, for which it might not be possible to derive analytical solutions using a (more narrow) microeconomics approach. However, the authors did note some issues with Cai et al (2010)Õs model of helium markets, including the lack of an endogenous component to account for short-term helium market shocks. A recent example of this type of shock on the supply side could be the 2017 trade embargo on Qatar (Croce 2017;Reisch 2017a).…”

Section: Other Helium Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economics, Helium, and the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Summary and Outlook

Anderson

2017

Nat Resour Res

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In 2017, disruptions in the global supply of helium reminded consumers, distributors, and policy makers that the global helium supply chain lacks flexibility, and that attempts to increase production from the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve (the FHR) may not be able to compensate for the loss of one of the few major producers in the world. Issues with U.S. and global markets for helium include inelastic demand, economic availability of helium only as a byproduct, only 4-5 major producers, heliumÕs propensity to escape earthÕs crust, an ongoing absence of storage facilities comparable to the FHR, and a lack of consequences for the venting of helium. The complex combination of these economic, physical, and regulatory issues is unique to helium, and determining heliumÕs practical availability goes far beyond estimating the technically accessible volume of underground resources. Although most of these issues have been analyzed since helium was recognized to be a valuable mineral commodity in the early 1900s, very few economic models have been developed that adequately consider the unique characteristics of helium and helium markets. In particular, there is a notable lack of recent empirical work to estimate the responsiveness of helium demand, supply, prices, and trade patterns to the ongoing drawdown and sale of helium reserves stored in the FHR. In general, existing models of helium either do not account for an oligopoly controlling supply, or they do not evaluate potential helium extraction and storage programs based on an intertemporal maximization of the value of the resource. Such models could be of very limited use to decision makers. This review found only one working paper with a helium market model that has incorporated both of these vital considerations. That and other economic studies along similar lines could be very useful in helping inform current helium policy discussions and decisions.

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Section: Imperfect Competitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Empirical Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Empirical Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Other Helium Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economics, Helium, and the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Summary and Outlook

Anderson

2017

Nat Resour Res

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“…Following the successful study by Cai and colleagues on helium availability from natural resources using system dynamics [28], we suggest that a similar approach can be used to research the synergy between hydrogen and superconducting applications. The use of professional system dynamics (SD) simulation software 'Vensim DSS' should allow the dynamics of hydrogen production to be integrated with wind energy and MPR in a decentralised set-up to be modelled and simulated to gather results to determine the performance of the hydrogen production systems.…”

Section: System Dynamics Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrogen Cryomagnetics for Decentralised Energy Management and Superconductivity

Glowacki

Nuttall

Hanley

et al. 2014

J Supercond Nov Magn

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As we enter the second century of superconductivity, helium still prevails as the cryogenic coolant of choice. What does the future of helium hold? What can be done to avoid the squandering of this precious resource? In our presentation, we will discuss the use of cryogenic hydrogen originated from renewable and low-CO 2 emission sources. We suggest that 20 K of liquid hydrogen can ultimately displace helium as an indirect coolant in a range of superconducting electromagnetic devices. As is already well documented, superconductors have much potential underpinning the future developments in transportation, energy supply/storage and also in medical applications. Although superconductors that can operate at liquid hydrogen temperatures, such as MgB 2 and YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7 , are not yet truly commercially available, research indicates that these will be feasible in the near future.

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Analytical artefacts: H₂ carrier gas hydrogenation of plant volatiles during headspace solid‐phase microextraction gas chromatography

Sansom

Perry

2021

Phytochemical Analysis

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Introduction Hydrogen is the most efficient and economical carrier gas for gas chromatography (GC). However, there are rare reports of artefact formation by hydrogenation of unsaturated compounds on GC. Head space solid‐phase microextraction (HS‐SPME) GC conditions for hydrogenation were studied. Methodology HS‐SPME‐GC‐mass spectrometry (MS) analyses of common classes of plant volatiles were carried out using hydrogen (H2) and helium (He) carrier gases with different SPME fibre coatings, GC inlet temperatures, and desorption times. Results Common phenylpropanoids, monoterpenes, and green leaf volatiles were hydrogenated to varying degrees on HS‐SPME‐GC with H2 carrier gas and SPME fibres coated with polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS)/Carboxen (CAR), PDMS/divinylbenzene (DVB), and PDMS/CAR/DVB. No artefacts were detected using PDMS‐only coated fibres or He carrier gas. Conclusion Unsaturated plant volatiles may be hydrogenated on HS‐SPME‐GC when using H2 carrier gas with SPME fibre coatings containing DVB polymer or CAR porous particles. Parallel analyses with He and H2 carrier gases are recommended when developing HS‐SPME‐GC methods for plant volatiles, or use of PDMS‐only coated fibres.

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Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau—Insights from system dynamics

Cited by 47 publications

References 9 publications

Economics, Helium, and the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Summary and Outlook

Economics, Helium, and the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Summary and Outlook

Hydrogen Cryomagnetics for Decentralised Energy Management and Superconductivity

Analytical artefacts: H₂ carrier gas hydrogenation of plant volatiles during headspace solid‐phase microextraction gas chromatography

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Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau—Insights from system dynamics

Cited by 47 publications

References 9 publications

Economics, Helium, and the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Summary and Outlook

Economics, Helium, and the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Summary and Outlook

Hydrogen Cryomagnetics for Decentralised Energy Management and Superconductivity

Analytical artefacts: H2 carrier gas hydrogenation of plant volatiles during headspace solid‐phase microextraction gas chromatography

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Product

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Analytical artefacts: H₂ carrier gas hydrogenation of plant volatiles during headspace solid‐phase microextraction gas chromatography