One step ahead of the law: The net effect of anticipation and implementation of Colombia’s illegal crops substitution program

Abstract

Pre-announced policies often generate anticipation effects that may end up in unintended consequences. But little is known about the extent to which the actual implementation of the policy can offset these effects. Previous research have shown that the announcement of an illegal crop substitution program made coca cultivation increase substantially in Colombia, but the net effect of the policy has not been estimated. We use detailed data on both coca cultivation and substitution payments at 1km × 1km grid squares to estimate the net effect of the policy. Our data also allows us to study the geographical spillovers of the program to non-targeted neighboring areas. Using a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we find that program recipients reduced illegal crops by 94% with respect to the pre-program mean. Surprisingly, the reduction in neighboring (non-targeted) grid areas is of similar magnitude. However, these reductions are not enough to compensate for the large increase in coca growing that took place between the announcement and the implementation of the policy, and thus the net effect is negative. This suggest both that the early announcement was a mistake that led to a substantial one-time cost, but the ongoing substitution efforts will have the intended effects if continued.

Long-term Care Insurance and Health and Perceived Satisfaction of Older Chinese: Comparisons Between Urban/Rural Areas, Chronic Conditions, and Their Intersectionality

“…The expected benefits from future policy implementation may change individuals’ perceived health and perception of current healthcare systems. Our findings are similar to a recent Colombian study 20 where the anticipation effect may have a stronger impact on well-being than the implementation effect, 21 especially in developing countries. Our findings suggest that studies on effects of LTCI on subjective outcomes (eg, Lei et al 9 ) based on short-term follow up periods may in fact capture policy announcement effects rather than implementation effects.…”

“… 19 However, policy affects health could be further attributed to the announcement and implementation effects. 20 The former indicates that the anticipated benefits may affect health when individuals learn about future policy implementation. The latter suggests that services or programs established by the policy may shape individuals’ health when the policy has been executed.…”

The Effects of a Less Repressive Counternarcotics Policy on Post-conflict Violence

“…A study found similar findings, an increase of 604 hectares on average per FARC-municipality for 2016, and 1032 for 2017, but no significant differences for years 2013(Lopez et al 2019. A couple of additional studies show that the stimulus created by the change in the counternarcotics policy modified farmers' behaviors for increasing coca production in FARC municipalities in order to receive better subsidies with the implementation of the peace accords (Ladino, Saavedra, and Wiesner 2021;Prem, Vargas, and Mejía 2023). Two years after the peace accords the SHC increased in most of the 170 municipalities focalized with the strategy established in the peace accords for reducing coca production.…”

A spatial regression analysis of Colombia’s narcodeforestation with factor decomposition of multiple predictors

“…Therefore, the amount of forest loss due to the trafficking of illegal drugs in Colombia is unknown. In addition to narcoactivities, also certain policies to contrast coca cultivation are suspected to have increased forest loss 23 , such as aerial spraying with glyphosate, a measure intended for eradication that was suspended in 2015 but might be reconsidered in the future 24 , 25 .…”