One Model to Fit All? The Pursuit of Integrated Earth System Models in GAIM and AIMES

Uhrqvist, Ola

doi:10.12759/hsr.40.2015.2.271-297

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Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model

Navarro

Moreno

Jiménez-Alcázar

et al. 2017

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Precise modeling of CO emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

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