Once the best student always the best student? Predicting graduate study success using undergraduate academic indicators: Evidence from research masters’ programs in the Netherlands

Abstract

In the face of increasing and diversifying graduate application numbers, evidencebased selective admissions have become a pressing issue. By conducting multilevel regression analyses on institutional admissions data from a Dutch university, this study aims to determine the predictive value of undergraduate academic indicators for graduate study success on research masters' programs in the life sciences. The results imply that in addition to undergraduate grade point average, undergraduate thesis grade is a valid predictor of graduate grade point average. To a small extent, the examined undergraduate academic indicators also predict graduate degree completion and time to degree. The results from this study can be used by admissions committees for evaluating and improving their current practices of graduate selective admissions.

Dear admission committee…: Which moves in application essays predict student master grades?

“…Second, we controlled for the average bachelor grade of the student. We control for bachelor grades because they have a consistently positive effect on student success [ 5 , 18 , 51 , 52 ]. This is because, independent of the content of the bachelor’s program, grades reflect the self-regulatory competencies that are needed for a student to successfully navigate a bachelor’s program [ 34 ].…”

“…However, some scholars doubt if application essays are a useful admission instrument [ 18 , 19 ] because the empirical evidence on the use and the predictive validity of application essays for study success is scarce and with ambiguous results [ 17 , 19 ]. Application essays may also favor students from an advantaged socio-economic background because of their particular writing skills and stronger access to useful advice [ 20 ].…”

Inequality of opportunity in selection procedures limits diversity in higher education: An intersectional study of Dutch selective higher education programs

“…Furthermore, disadvantaging applicants who are already underrepresented in HE reproduces societal and educational inequities [14,21]. Admissions committees should use valid selection methods [35], but research by the Dutch Inspectorate of Education suggests that this is not always the case [36]. However, it is unknown what the effects are of belonging to multiple (dis)advantaged groups at the same time.…”

The added value of signal detection theory as a method in evidence-informed decision-making in higher education: A demonstration

“…Note that this paper's purpose is to demonstrate the use of SDT in decision making in higher education, with student selection as an example. The reader is referred to the literature on admission and selection for details on selection instruments in specific contexts (Steenman et al, 2016;Wouters et al, 2016;Niessen et al, 2018;Kurysheva et al, 2019Kurysheva et al, , 2022. Three variables of interest in this demonstration, bachelor's average grade, bachelor's thesis grade and master's average grade are given on a Dutch scale from 1 to 10.…”