On the use of scenario analysis in combination with prescriptive fire safety design requirements

Bjelland, Henrik; Borg, Audun

doi:10.1007/s10669-012-9425-2

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Furthermore, I1 emphasizes the need to prioritize the uncertainty analysis alternatives for each assessment based on an initial qualitative analysis. To address the question, I2 states that in FSE the current preferred approach to risk assessments is implicit worst credible scenarios (deterministic), which is in fact backed up by the analysis of Johansson [132] of Australian fire engineering reports and presented in a broader international perspective by Bjelland [133]. Therefore, I2 highlights that practitioners should be more aware and willing to communicate about the uncertainties involved in deterministic assessments, as well as their limitations.…”

Section: Discussion On the Practitioners' Perspectivementioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty-based decision-making in fire safety: Analyzing the alternatives

Cadena

Osorio

Torero

et al. 2020

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

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Large accidents throughout the 20 th century marked the development of safety fields in engineering, devoted to better identify hazards, understand risks and properly manage them. While many such fields evolved rather quickly and moved from a compliance to a risk-based approach, Fire Safety Engineering (FSE) experienced a significant delay in this transition. While the current performance-based approach to FSE provides flexibility and capitalizes on learning from accidental events and other engineering disciplines, FSE is still in many respects decades behind other safety fields and a key issue for the future is how FSE can account for uncertainty in the decision making process. This work provides an overview of the main alternatives to account for uncertainty in safety studies within the context of FSE, including traditional probabilistic analyses and emerging approaches such as strength of knowledge. An example is used to illustrate the impact of the uncertainty analysis on the results of a simplified fire safety assessment. A structured evaluation is performed on each alternative to assess its ease of implementation and communication. The outcome is a compendium of advantages and disadvantages of the alternatives that constitute a toolbox for fire safety engineers to configure and use within their fire risk assessments. Process safety engineers are expected to gain an understanding of the similar and important challenges of FSE, it being directly relevant for process risk management and fire risk management in administrative buildings.

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Section: Discussion On the Practitioners' Perspectivementioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty-based decision-making in fire safety: Analyzing the alternatives

Cadena

Osorio

Torero

et al. 2020

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…In policy and planning studies, it is commonplace to use hypothetical scenarios to investigate the performance and behaviour of a particular policy or system (Bjelland and Borg, 2013; Brauers and Weber, 1988). Scenario analysis is often used to analyse possible future scenarios by considering possible best, worst and average outcomes (Daellenbach et al , 2012; Hassani and Hassani, 2016).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using the cost of construction work to trigger legislative duties for WHS: the Australian experience

Shooshtarian

Lingard

Wong

2020

BEPAM

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PurposeIn an attempt to create national harmonisation of legislation, a set of model Work Health and Safety (WHS) Regulations were developed in Australia. These regulations require principal contractors to undertake specific WHS planning and coordination activities if the construction works to be completed cost AU $250,000 or more. However, there are some doubts about the usefulness of this monetary threshold. This study aimed to investigate how effective this threshold can be in Australia.Design/methodology/approachTo evaluate the performance and operation of this threshold in the Australian construction industry, this study modelled the costs of construction for four construction project scenarios – small classroom, two-storey home renovation with adjacent pool, small commercial warehouse and single-storey house (volume home builder) – under various conditions based on historical data (2011–2017) and in eight Australian jurisdictions.FindingsAmong the six study factors (i.e. the types for construction, geographical location, design specification, delivery method, contracting approach and inflation), the research found considerable variation in the operation and performance of the monetary threshold.Originality/valueThe research highlights some potential challenges associated with the use of a monetary threshold in the regulation of WHS planning in construction projects. Thus, the results are expected to contribute to addressing these challenges, leading to the development of an appropriate balance to achieve efficient and effective WHS regulation in Australia.

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“…The evolution path of a fire from one scenario state to the next is determined by the corresponding hazardous factors and emergency response activities (Bjelland & Borg, 2013). If emergency rescuers are effective in firefighting, then the fire will evolve in an optimistic direction, indicating that the fire can be extinguished; conversely, it will develop in a pessimistic direction that requires further rescue measures.…”

Section: Scenario Elements In a Subway Station Firementioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Subway Station Fire by Using a Bayesian Network-Based Scenario Evolution Model

Li,

Yuan,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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Subway station fires frequently result in massive casualties, economic losses and even social panic due to the massive passenger flow, semiconfined space and limited conditions for escape and smoke emissions. The combination of different states of fire hazard factors increases the uncertainty and complexity of the evolution path of subway station fires and causes difficulty in assessing fire risk. Traditional methods cannot describe the development process of subway station fires, and thus, cannot assess fire risk under different fire scenarios. To realise scenario-based fire risk assessment, the elements that correspond to each scenario state during fire development in subway stations are identified in this study to explore the intrinsic driving force of fire evolution. Accordingly, a fire scenario evolution model of subway stations is constructed. Then, a Bayesian network is adopted to construct a scenario evolution probability calculation model for calculating the occurrence probability of each scenario state during subway station fire development and identifying critical scenario elements that promote fire evolution. Xi’an subway station system is used as a case to illustrate the application of Bayesian network-based scenario evolution model, providing a practical management tool for fire safety managers. The method adopted in this study enables managers to predict fire risk in each scenario and understand the evolution path of subway station fire, supporting the establishment of fire response strategies based on “scenario–response” planning.

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On the use of scenario analysis in combination with prescriptive fire safety design requirements

Cited by 9 publications

References 10 publications

Uncertainty-based decision-making in fire safety: Analyzing the alternatives

Uncertainty-based decision-making in fire safety: Analyzing the alternatives

Using the cost of construction work to trigger legislative duties for WHS: the Australian experience

Risk Assessment of Subway Station Fire by Using a Bayesian Network-Based Scenario Evolution Model

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