On the use of explainable AI for susceptibility modeling: examining the spatial pattern of SHAP values

Abstract

Hydro-morphological processes (HMP, any natural phenomenon contained within the spectrum defined between debris flows and flash floods) are globally occurring natural hazards which pose great threats to our society, leading to fatalities and economical losses. For this reason, understanding the dynamics behind HMPs is needed to aid in hazard and risk assessment. In this work, we take advantage of an explainable deep learning model to extract global and local interpretations of the HMP occurrences across the whole Chinese territory. We use a neural network architecture and interpret the model results through the spatial pattern of SHAP values.In doing so, we can understand the model prediction on a hierarchical basis, looking at how the predictor set controls the overall susceptibility as well as doing the same at the level of the single mapping unit.Traditional statistical tools usually lead to a clear interpretation at the expense of large performance, which is otherwise reached via machine/deep learning solutions, though at the expense of interpretation. Explainable AI is the key to combine both strengths and in this work, we explore this combination in the context of HMP susceptibility modeling. Specifically, we demonstrate the extent to which one can enter a new level of data-driven interpretation, supporting the decision-making process behind disaster risk mitigation and prevention actions.