On the Supply Dynamics of Scandium, Global Resources, Production, Oxide and Metal Price, a Prospective Modelling Study Using WORLD7

Abstract

The scandium production rate and price data for scandium oxide and scandium metal was extracted from various sources. Data for extractable resources of scandium were found and evaluated by application of estimated yields. The feasible extractable resource is about 6.1 million ton, and with present technology, about 676,000 ton scandium appear as potentially extractable. The potential for scandium extraction is about 1500 ton/year at present, but only about 45 ton per year was produced in 2022. With improved extraction and access yields, production could be increased to about 450 ton per year, and the scandium resource would increase to about 1.5 million ton. The investigation suggests that there will be an increased demand for scandium metal in the future, but that it is limited by the high price and the lack of a properly functioning market and by a lack of production infrastructure. The scandium market show signs of being disorganized and unstructured. Modelling of future scandium production was done using the WORLD7 integrated assessment model, after development of a scandium module. Simulations show that the price will remain relatively high, but lower than in the past. The most uncertain factor for predicting the price is the size of the demand. The main limitation for making scandium metal is high energy costs and low extraction yields.