On the spectral characteristics of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in an ensemble of multi-century simulations

Mavilia, Irene; Bellucci, Alessio; Athanasiadis, Panos; Gualdi, Silvio; Msadek, Rym; Ruprich‐Robert, Yohan

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4093-7

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…We also examine the power spectral density of simulated AMV time series (Figure 4; see Mavilia et al., 2018 for uncertainties related to non‐stationary behavior and the AMV spectrum). With global radiative forcing, AMV in both the XAER and XGHG ensembles demonstrates substantial increases in power spectral density over multidecadal periods, beyond what internal variability alone can generate.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Signatures of Forced North Atlantic SST Variability: A Limited Role for Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

Baek

Kushnir

Ting

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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During the 20th century, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) displayed a basin-wide, multidecadal oscillation superimposed on to a century-scale warming tendency associated with a global response to external radiative forcing. The slow, oscillating part of basin-wide SST variations, separate from the century-scale warming, has been considered unique to the North Atlantic and became known as the Atlantic Multidecadal

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Signatures of Forced North Atlantic SST Variability: A Limited Role for Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

Baek

Kushnir

Ting

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Mavilia et al. (2018) analyzed the AMV stationarity in an ensemble of CMIP5 pre‐industrial simulations, highlighting the alternation of epochs with significantly different regimes of North Atlantic SST low‐frequency variability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(2009) found inter-centennial modulations of the ENSO signal in a 2,000-year control simulation of the pre-industrial climate. Mavilia et al (2018) analyzed the AMV stationarity in an ensemble of CMIP5 pre-industrial simulations, highlighting the alternation of epochs with significantly different regimes of North Atlantic SST low-frequency variability.…”

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confidence: 99%

Intermittent Behavior in the AMOC‐AMV Relationship

Bellucci

Mattei

Ruggieri

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The origin of the observed multi-decadal swings in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), conventionally referred to as Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), is at the core of a highly controversial debate (Clement et al., 2015;Mann et al., 2021;Zhang et al., 2019). In the context of the historical climate record (past 150 years), different processes have been suggested as drivers of the observed AMV-related fluctuations, including internal variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; Gulev et al., 2013), natural forcings (Otterå et al., 2010;Swingedouw et al., 2015) and changes in anthropogenic aerosols and green-house gases (Bellucci et al., 2017;Booth et al., 2012). Under fixed external forcing conditions, the AMOC-AMV connection emerges as a key element of the low-frequency variability in the Atlantic region (Ba et al., 2014;Delworth & Mann, 2000;Knight et al., 2005) with changes in the AMOC strength leading, through a delayed response in the poleward heat transport, to a modulation of the SSTs on a basin-wide scale. This causal chain has relevant implications for the climate predictability of the Atlantic region on decadal and longer time scales. Decadal hindcasts performed with global climate models initialized with realistic estimates of the climate state display significant skill in retrospective predictions of SSTs over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, suggesting a role for the initialization of the ocean through synchronization of predicted and observed AMOC and heat transport fluctuations (Robson et al., 2014;Yeager & Robson, 2017). The stability of the AMOC-AMV connection is therefore instrumental for the predictability of the North Atlantic climate anomalies: a temporary weakening or disruption of this mechanism might negatively affect the predictive ability of decadal forecast systems in the Atlantic sector.

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SPEEDY-NEMO: performance and applications of a fully-coupled intermediate-complexity climate model

Ruggieri,

Abid,

García-Serrano

et al. 2024

Clim Dyn

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A fully-coupled general circulation model of intermediate complexity is documented. The study presents an overview of the model climatology and variability, with particular attention to the phenomenology of processes that are relevant for the predictability of the climate system on seasonal-to-decadal time-scales. It is shown that the model can realistically simulate the general circulation of the atmosphere and the ocean, as well as the major modes of climate variability on the examined time-scales: e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Tropical Atlantic Variability, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability. Potential applications of the model are discussed, with emphasis on the possibility of generating sets of low-cost large-ensemble retrospective forecasts. We argue that the presented model is suitable to be employed in traditional and innovative model experiments that can play a significant role in future developments of seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction.

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On the spectral characteristics of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in an ensemble of multi-century simulations

Cited by 3 publications

References 46 publications

Regional Signatures of Forced North Atlantic SST Variability: A Limited Role for Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

Regional Signatures of Forced North Atlantic SST Variability: A Limited Role for Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

Intermittent Behavior in the AMOC‐AMV Relationship

SPEEDY-NEMO: performance and applications of a fully-coupled intermediate-complexity climate model

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